Thanks Bdog,
Puken alltime highs eh? No problem....here's what you missed tonight:
tiric111: Look at the 2,1,2 on the daily S&P
tiric111: That little piece of garbage down there is not a good sign for any real upside tomorrow
seaspoo: stoch 2,1,2?
tiric111: yep
seaspoo: any resolution to nyse vol
magnatizer: yea
seaspoo: i found all my sources as 910 mil
tiric111: ok....I like 910 better
magnatizer: bob, are you surprised at the lack of weakness in the spoos tonight
tiric111: If it was 1.1 bil...it would have meant more than just 9500 downside on the Dow and would hint that 1.7 bil or more would be needed for exhaustion
seaspoo: they've been up .60 and down -7.00; now -1.90
magnatizer: yea, they have been mostly hanging around flat
magnatizer: i have been watching them
magnatizer: was thinking they should show more weakness
tiric111: David, that garbage on the 2,1,2 is a sign of significant weakness for tomorrow. The close should be well off the low and the open may be up but the middle will be ugly
magnatizer: k
magnatizer: i think i would rather have two bullets tomorrow instead of one
tiric111: The only way it could close near the low is if the range is relatively small tomorrow
magnatizer: gonna cover one short and stay in other two
tiric111: If it goes down more than 200 at any point, it'll rally some into the close
magnatizer: japan is down 300 or so
magnatizer: finance.yahoo.com^N225&d=1d
seaspoo: is it? not much spoos vol
magnatizer: that was one consideration on my surprise spoos hanging on so well
magnatizer: thought they should be down 5 min
seaspoo: i thought the lack of action at fri close was indicating some modicum of strength
magnatizer: k, it also put a inside bar on the 60 min
seaspoo: i would expect some retail selling at open
seaspoo: Doug, saw your post on thread re rally; are you thinking otherwise?
tiric111: What rally? Sheez...I hope I didn't post anything about a rally
tiric111: A small technical bounce maybe but not a rally
seaspoo: that's a rally in my time frame.
tiric111: lol...ok
tiric111: Did you see the bounce about 15 mins after the upper BB (20) crossed below the 50 MA on the 1 min just as the limit was hit on Fri?
alesisgb has entered the room.
seaspoo: i was surprised at the containment on friday.
tiric111: ok...it was 11 mins for that one
tiric111: It was 13 mins after it did it at noon
alesisgb: so who thinks we see 9500 tomorrow?????
magnatizer: Chris on stock attack calling for it tomorrow i think... hes pretty good
tiric111: Nah...not tomorrow...Tuesday...either way it's no big deal though
seaspoo: i guess i agree, it's hard to know when it will get down there; but, i think it's going there.
alesisgb: bob sez, i'll give you 500 dollars cash or you can take whats behind curtain 3...
seaspoo: lol
tiric111: heheh
tiric111: The real thing to be aware of is the second bottom. After the 1st one the 13 dCCI on the S&P will spend about 8 trading days in a comatose state as it moves up weakly with no real "tone" to it then break down again
tiric111: That will be the real bottom
tiric111: Just about on halloween
tiric111: The CPI is gonna be interesting too
seaspoo: bonds should give a clue on monday am if real panic is building.
tiric111: agree
tiric111: If the fed is behind the curve on inflation like a few have suggested, gold will break over 325 also
alesisgb: options stat...80 pct of all weeks following an expiration trade in the opposite direction of the previous week...interesting stat
tiric111: What's the situation during the 20% of weeks that don't?
alesisgb: not sure, just thought it was interesting stat
tiric111: I think the week will be up but not before some significant downside
tiric111: Then a double bottom
tiric111: There's no way this market puts in a V bottom here
seaspoo: just judging by the contained action most of the day on fri, i think some big players would like to move the mrkt higher before selling down
seaspoo: they prolly have lots of stocks yet to unload, since PPI was such a strong negative.
tiric111: most of the action on Fri was on a comatose CCI intraday. That's not really contained...it's "stunned"
tiric111: drat...Gregg, can you IM me a cig?
tiric111: You still short GE?
seaspoo: saw some commentary that suggested stage is set for coord intervention which would produce a pop
tiric111: currency intervention?
seaspoo: yes, global concerns that us economy is too important to world recovery
tiric111: I think central banks were taught a big lesson by currency traders last year. They may be more patient about intervention this time around. Especially dollar/yen at this point
seaspoo: usu g-7 meeting has plan for action a week or two after meeting, depending on events
alesisgb: i'm still short doug
tiric111: could gap down tomorrow
tiric111: something under 110 fits pretty well
alesisgb: if it does, i'll prolly take some off the table
alesisgb: gap down 5???
alesisgb: 110 is support area isn't it?
seaspoo: oh, the cb's respect the forex mrkt, but they'll try to do something if it's felt to be imp enough and in the interst of all.tiric111: intraday under 110 tomorrow or Tues. gap down may only be 5/8 to 7/8
alesisgb: i was gonna say...
tiric111: The cb's should be "sneakier" about it this time and just do it to support a deceleration and really turn it on when a turn starts. Trying to stop it on a dime like they did last year was no good at all
tiric111: There may have been a coordinated effort to shake out some economies the way they did it last year. It's not quite the same situation this year
tiric111: It was like they were saying, "If you can't hang with us when we do it like this...forget you"
seaspoo: the jy chart is outside its uptrend channel, and looks poised for a down leg.
alesisgb: japan mkt taking a hit
seaspoo: that would be a great perspective.
seaspoo: greg , your ge short all technical?
tiric111: GE short is all based on the smell of fear
tiric111: Since fear is technical...yep
seaspoo: hong kong is the listening post for all of asia
alesisgb: there was also a channel in place that i anticipated it losing
seaspoo: strong $ works against ge
seaspoo: aas well as slow down in us economy if fed has to put brakes on
alesisgb: 110 is the longterm line, will probably take a crash to lose it
seaspoo: what identifies 110 as support?
alesisgb: a line starting at the oct low
alesisgb: 98
seaspoo: how hard was it to build a short positioon?
alesisgb: not too hard, lots of upticks involved and little bounces
seaspoo: so you could short another 1000 easy if you wanted to, eh?
alesisgb: i think so
alesisgb: if i see a fifteen minute bottom i may take some off for a chance at a reload
seaspoo: just wondering, since it's been almost straight down fir 5 days, it's prolly due for a rebound; so you could cover and get back in higher later.
alesisgb: yes
tiric111: A gap down would be the first indication that it's getting ready for some covering
alesisgb: prolly including myself
tiric111: unless it moves like that drop in Aug after the gap
tiric111: the 50 dMA is still moving up but it closed under it
seaspoo: after sell down on mon open, i think we should see some sideway /up action; jump around on CPI on tues; then dump bad on bad (huge) trade gap figures on Wed.
tiric111: A bounce should take it back to near the MA but probably briefly
seaspoo: central bank action is a wild card
alesisgb: yeah, the recovery of the ma would be a definite concern
tiric111: The trade gap is just US policy trying to give weight or credence to the "importance" of a global economy.
tiric111: when it's not really needed
alesisgb: yeh, if a gap down occurs mkt wise even i think yer right bob...just a matter of whethr it will be just covering or any buyers are willing to step up how far it bounces back
tiric111: The hand is already dealt and Clinton wants it to appear that he's on the "winning" side
tiric111: So he's willing to allow a widening gap
alesisgb: i don't think greenie cares for a widening gap
tiric111: I think that's where he has greenspan on his side too
tiric111: the long term nature of the process definitely allows for a "inappropriate" sized gap
tiric111: long term meaning over 10 yrs
alesisgb: mrci.com
alesisgb: those strategies weren't there an hour ago
seaspoo: i think the recent continuing higher trade imbalances have given trade parners lots of $ to invest; if too many, there's concern about US stock; htey sell stocks mrkt; buy us treasuries.
tiric111: Buy treasuries and interest rates are held back...the long term trend in the market is then supported
tiric111: nice site
seaspoo: again, i'm just talking about short term reaction to increasingly large trade gap report.and expecting it will be bad, higher oil for one thing
alesisgb: ok, here's my call...mkt shows no signs of meltdown in the morning as everyone and joe six pack check on it during that time to maybe lunch...after lunch, the destruction
tiric111: the trade deficit being used as a cause or nudge for swinging people into bonds pretty much goes along with a long term strategy
alesisgb: greenie in one of his speeches mentions that widening trading gap makes our growth unstable, and is a large negative as well as concern...i'm like 90pct sure its in one of his recent speeches
tiric111: support levels have to be maintained and a spike in bond yields here helps that support
tiric111: What greenspan says and what the charts are doing appears to be a case of, "do what I do, not what I say"
tiric111: So he's jacking up interest rates to get more buyers in at a previous level that will be solidified as support
tiric111: Then inflation goes away again
tiric111: This correction will be the last best opportunity
seaspoo: maybe, but if a lot of foreigners are holding increasing large amts of $; there is a growing concern among them and US mkt players that that's not good (weak $); and if US stock mrkt looks overvalued; foreigners will be increasingly inclined to sell
tiric111: The one thing I'm watching for an indication that I'm wrong is if gold breaks over 345.
alesisgb: Message 11578499
tiric111: if it goes over 325...another rate hike is coming...if it goes over 345...sell stocks
alesisgb: check out the last half of the post
tiric111: Equities for this group as a percentage offinancial assets are now 60%, the highest in history, exceeding theprior high of 55% at the secular peak in 1968.
tiric111: THAT is a breakout
tiric111: not a trouble sign
tiric111: The whole damn thing is screaming breakout
tiric111: geez...some people
alesisgb: you better keep reading...
tiric111: All that just is JUST NOW starting to happen. It's not like it has been decelerating as it hit these levels. Everything accelerated into higher territory
tiric111: I'm sticking with Harry Dent and IBM's new process to manufacture chips with copper
alesisgb: read the inflation one too
tiric111: And a ton of other stuff that is completely contrary to the spin of that article
tiric111: Ok...the market looks 9 months out when it's hitting things right. We hit a low this month and what? things are worse a year from now? no way
tiric111: This is just a retest of a breakout
alesisgb: its doubtful but possible...
alesisgb: is the inflation in commodities caused by adverse conditions
tiric111: I'm going to stick with probable
alesisgb: could those conditions continue to occur in march prohibiting, say, crops???
tiric111: the increase in inflation is caused by a short term overstretching of the rubberband
seaspoo: spoos now popping up; only down -1.50 , upper end of o'nite range; jy near highs of fri but looking stalled; oil futures at fri highs ~ 23; will be watching bonds and news of c bank activities in am
tiric111: Geez Bob...don't get too esoteric on us...
alesisgb: no hints being given away tonite
seaspoo: gonna get some rest; talk to you in am.
alesisgb: nite
tiric111: C ya
seaspoo: cya
seaspoo has left the room.
tiric111: hmmm adverse conditions...that's always present.
tiric111: There's not a month that goes by without a major earthquake
tiric111: Hurricane season happens every year
alesisgb: i was thinking more in terms of weather myself
tiric111: droughts happen all the time
tiric111: floods too
alesisgb: so it is possible
tiric111: what?
tiric111: That global warming will kill everybody?
alesisgb: for inflation to pick up in the spring, per se
tiric111: Ok...so what?
tiric111: Nah
tiric111: Inflation here is being "engineered"
tiric111: OPEC isn't going to get more restrictive
alesisgb: that article indicates the measures being used, remove oil and gold
tiric111: There's a 90% chance that the only direction they will go is toward less restrictive
tiric111: Burlap my ass
alesisgb: oops does include oil, but not gold
tiric111: That friggin' argument was used 5 years ago
tiric111: Oh shit!!!! The Dow is at 3400 and BURLAP IS UP!!!
tiric111: I remember that
alesisgb: lol
alesisgb: well, gonna wrap it up...cya tomorrow
One helluva post for my 10,000th eh?
Doug R |
