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To: oilbabe who wrote (53174)	10/18/1999 4:26:00 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95453

From Bridge/CRB: NYMEX Oil: Front-month crude weakens ahead of Wed expiry By Mary Chung, Bridge News New York--Oct 18--Front-month WTI crude weakened ahead of the expiration of Nov crude futures contracts Wednesday. Nov crude broke through support at $22.60, hitting an intraday low of $22.48. At 1121 ET, NYMEX Nov crude was down 24c at $22.58. Nov heating oil was down 21 points at 59.35c, while Nov gasoline was down 5 points at 63.50c. * * * "The front end is getting pounded and people are trying to get out before expiration," a broker said. The Nov-Dec spread continues to widen as participants roll their front-month positions into December and push the spread deeper into contango, brokers said. Local traders had earlier pushed crude up to test Friday's high at $22.90 but was unable to push it through that level. "They couldn't push it to $23.00 so they decided to take it down," a broker said. Meanwhile, NYMEX products also slightly fell but some brokers predict that good paper buying in gasoline futures could help push products higher. "The locals are short so if they are forced to cover, gasoline will get stronger," a broker said. Meanwhile, the market shrugged off supportive background news that the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries OAPEC said today that producing countries should continue with their output-cuts policy to avoid the negative results of changing this policy while stocks are still high. OAPEC in its October monthly bulletin hi ghlighted the importance of OPEC countries' compliance with the pledged cuts and that of cooperation with non-OPEC producers. (Story .16969) Also, Mexican secretary of state for energy Luis Tellez said today that the price of Brent crude oil should be around 25 to 27 dollars per barrel in the next 4 months. The benchmark North Sea Brent crude currently costs between 20 and 22 dollars per barrel, having reached a low-point of around 10 dollars per barrel earlier this year.

To: oilbabe who wrote (53174)	10/18/1999 4:32:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 95453

Dennis Gartman letter this am re crude---"testing once again the recent highs but likely to fail. The weakness in share prices around the world will give rise (perhaps prematurely, but concerns nevertheless) that prospective demand of crude oil may actually have been ramped up too dramatically and that real demand may prove far smaller.We note that even as prices rise the term structures are not acting bullishly. Indeed, Brent is acting bearishly as Nov/Dec is in contango rather than backwardation and as WTI is about to go that way...We wish to sell short this morning"-----geez, he must be a EW'er! (vbg). Bring on sub $20 and let's get it over with! -----JimL, I called for the near term low at 1pm because the EW picture said the 5wave sequence down from 10,700ish was completed this morning at 9976. Later on this pm it retested 9976 and held and we should be up from here---but I am holding out for the liklihood (65/35) of one last dip below 9976 within the next 10days on fewer new lows and better daily breadth than we saw on Oct15