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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (30455)	10/18/1999 5:09:00 PM
From: Dave Shares	Respond to of 99985

Jerry, Now that NDX and COMP have broken support from much higher levels, the P&F charts tell me that there could be a significant upside rally to make a lower top. BUT, I am far more bearish than you , my friend, simply because: 1) I can't see what is out there after earnings to keep the tech stocks up. 2) I am skeptical about continued acceleration of earnings, especially in light of labor cost pressures. 3) I am skeptical about those who say that the healthy economy bodes well for a healthy stock market. I have always understood that the stock market is more of a leading indicator for the economy. The P&F indicators are in oversold territory, but not so in my opinion for the NDX. We follow the indicators, we don't guess where they are going. Nothing says that the BPNYSE has to reverse up soon...it will happen, but it could take a while. Even the short term indicators could stay oversold for a while, I won't even try to guess. But I do hope for a good CPI and a 100 point day on the NDX tomorrow, so I can re-buy QQQ puts, we can go up past 2500 on the NDX now and still be below P&F resistance, so I agree, the upside is tradeable, but any rally poses a good short opportunity, in my opinion, with the indicators where they are. I'm no genius, but it sure looks to me like there is big time distribution going on with the big cap techs that have bloated the NDX. Be well, David