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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (7087)	10/18/1999 8:20:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

bb:" ok, we're goin' down..." ...no problem; so let's talk extent, bobby. I got far target = SnP top -25% = SPY 105 area; that would be -15% YTD. I got worst-case scenario at SPY 90~100 area, say, -35% from SnP top; -25% YTD. ===> what's your best estimate of downside extent ? now, I've gone out into left-field (mebbe you too, I dunno) and forecast "a real bear market". This doesn't change my estimates, worst-case scenario - of possible downside extent in the SnP. What it means is that I think we're likely to roll around in the dirt for awhile. Last time ('98) market went to hell in a handbasket, it made a scary, double-plunge... as usual, all our T/A became worthless down there. But it didn't roll around - in fact, the usual suspects (better F/A BigBoyz) moved up smartly. yeah, ya flip the SPY chart upside-down, it's a big base = apparent distribution. So I think that, if the SnP tanks, when it hits bottom this time it won't just get really, really scary; this time it will get really, really boring ! -Steve

To: bobby beara who wrote (7087)	10/18/1999 9:17:00 PM
From: AurumRabosa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Dell confesses to true impact of Taiwan and tanks 10% in the after market. Guess that explains why Dell insiders sold so many many shares last quarter. HWP told the truth and now INTC must tell the truth. We're going down big time. Rolled over Oct puts last week for about 800 bonz and now holding 130 puts in DJX, OEX, IIX, SOX, QQQ, DELL, and a basket of other tech-wreck candidates. I don't have the TA and charting skills the boyz have but I have a feel for down drafts. That's why I'm just a Natural Born Bear