To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (43335 ) 10/19/1999 8:35:00 AM From: IngotWeTrust Respond to of 116753
A recent look back at Ashanti's Hedge Book in light of current "woes" Fair use, etc... Ashanti Goldfields Seeking respect in U.S. SAN FRANCISCO Ashanti Goldfields, the large African mining company that has long been a favorite of London analysts, is slowly winning admirers in the United States. Ashanti, like many gold mining companies, has seen its shares dwindle in value as the price of gold at about $310 an ounce hovers near its lowest point in more than a decade. Gold is so cheap, even money manager Peter Lynch is advising folks to buy gold. Ashanti, unknown to many investors in the United States, holds a large, so-called "hedge book" that allows it to harvest a price of about $425 an ounce. Several San Francisco and New York analysts note the hedged position of 5.8 million ounces of gold, which uses derivative contracts to lock in better prices by selling the metal into the future, is one of the industry's largest. "The company expects to realize an average gold price of $450 an ounce for the remainder of 1997 and about $400 per ounce during 1998" say David Christensen and Mark Burridge at Merrill Lynch in San Francisco. Alas, Ashanti's American Depositary shares are flirting with a 52-week low of 9 on the New York Stock Exchange. The Ghana company's shares, in the form of Global Depositary Receipts, are also languishing in London even amid positive comments from British analysts. Nothing suprising there. Most investors see gold mining companies as long-term losing bets these days. Inflation seems tame. Central banks are dumping gold. And everyone wants to own U.S. bonds, the dollar or the German market in times of crisis. What's more, the strong dollar, makes gold more expensive for overseas investors. That's because the price of gold is expressed in dollars around the world. Oh well. The professionals who advise investors are actually raising their earnings estimates for Ashanti, which mines for gold in the jungles of Ghana and elsewhere in Africa. On the exploration end of things, Ashanti could have big winners at several sites, including its Geita project in Tanzania. Two other mines it is developing in Ghana could begin producing gold shortly. The folks at Merrill Lynch think the two developing mines, at Siguiri and Bibiani, should have begun producing 300,000 ounces a year as soon as the second half of 1998. The risk for investors is the anemic price of gold. If gold prices continue to head south, analysts won't care if large companies like Ashanti have golden exploration prospects and robust hedging strategies. Ashanti shares sold at $9.50 sell for less than twice their stated book value of $5.50 a share in1997. For most natural resource companies that are profitable, this looked cheap. But for investors who are used to 30 percent and 40 percent yearly returns on big U.S. companies that sell everything from computers to detergent, Ashanti's shares might still look expensive. Merrill Lynch's Christensen and Burridge saw a price of $11.38 a share in 1998.