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To: Yaacov who wrote (14995)	10/19/1999 6:31:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 17770

Fear of big losses deters Russian attack on Grozny By Marcus Warren in Moscow and Alexei Beryozin in Mozdok RUSSIAN forces reached the outskirts of Grozny yesterday but still appeared to be tightening their grip on the Chechen capital rather than planning an all-out assault. Some advance units were reported to be as close as the village of Pervomaiskaya, six miles from Grozny, but ventured no further, apparently afraid of being outflanked by Chechen guerrillas. This week is supposed to mark the start of phase two of Moscow's operation to destroy what it calls "terrorists" in Chechnya to follow the creation of a heavily patrolled security zone, most of it deep inside the rebel republic. The Russian military now dominate the Terek ridge north-west of Grozny and can lob shells into the city from the high ground at will. But Russia's generals hinted they would consolidate their control of the high ground rather than start a head-on confrontation with well-armed guerrillas on the plains below. "There will be no storming of Grozny," Gen Valery Manilov, deputy head of the General Staff, said in London. "No land operation in the accepted sense of the word is either being conducted or will be conducted." In fact, tens of thousands of Russian troops have poured into Chechnya in the last fortnight and convoys of armoured vehicles miles long and heading for the rebel republic are a common sight on the region's roads. The fear of suffering devastating losses similar to those inflicted on the Russian army by the guerrillas in 1994-96 is a major deterrent against launching huge set piece attacks, especially with elections two months away. The offensive into Chechnya is the first in Russian military history to betray such concern about casualties, and so far Moscow has succeeded in minimising the number of its dead and wounded. Only five years ago the Russian army's last storming of Grozny turned into a bloodbath, with entire battalions slaughtered. This time the military has bombed the Chechen rebels from the air and shelled them from afar, but fighting on the ground has been confined to battles for control of strategic villages as the security zone expands. Rather than advancing into Grozny, the units at Pervomaiskaya were said last night to be likely to join up with Russian forces approaching from the north, further squeezing the capital's defence. Russian soldiers were still trying to flush out Chechen snipers yesterday in the hill village of Goragorsky, which controls the road through the Terek ridge towards Grozny. Moscow's tactics have been to speed ahead into Chechen territory, bypassing centres of population and leaving mopping-up operations until later. Outwardly confident, Russian commanders say they have been surprised by the low quality of the resistance they have encountered, with the guerrillas unable to offer more than a ragged challenge to their men. Col Gennady Alyokhin said: "We have real superiority in numbers. The maximum numbers of fighters in each guerrilla band are 100 to 150. They just don't have the strength to stand up to us." In the northern third of Chechnya under Russian control, guerrilla tactics concentrate on raids and ambushes by small groups which then disappear into the forests. In response, Russian forces have been conducting house-to-house searches and forcing young men to strip to the waist. Then they look for bruises to the shoulder inflicted by the recoil of rifles. telegraph.co.uk