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To: Don Green who wrote (11800)10/19/1999 3:21:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Respond to of 14226
 
Don, we had that argument elsewhere, the conservatism of the Japanese investor is the reason I am assuming a minute leak of 2% only in the first year. I would guess that even in a population as conservative as that one, there is a statistical deviation (6 sigma ) which will behave counter the main trend. In any event, that should, IMHO, be good only for late this year and to November next year (election?), after that, the cloud of a cyclical recession might engulf us and liquidity will be drained back, but I would not worry about a major break until the second half of 2000 at the earliest and probably not before February 2001.

Zeev