Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : India Coffee House -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JPR who wrote (8558)	10/19/1999 2:21:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 12475

Thanks, but I think this is the time of my life to have fun, pricking your bubbles and toppling your house of cards!

To: JPR who wrote (8558)	10/19/1999 3:00:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 12475

Good analysis of what's in store for the NDA government, once the euphoria dies out... indiavotes.com Excerpt [emphases mine] : The problem for Vajpayee will be not so much to rein in others such as the Trinamul Congress, the Janata Dal (U), the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Chauthala's INLD and the DMK. The more serious problem will arise as the BJP tries to expand its base in the stales where it is a junior partner at the expense of its regional allies. The contradiction the BJP faces between running a 24-party coalition, which the RSS could not be too happy about, and trying to expand so that it can one day run the government on its own will push it into conflicts with its allies. The other sources of ready conflict will be the stance of the hardliners in the Hindutva parivar such as the RSS, the VHP and the Bajrang Dal. One notable feature of the elections was the expansion of the BJP votes and seats in the tribal belt running from Orissa to Gujarat. This expansion was the result of the attacks on the Christian minorities in the tribal belt which led to the communal mobilisation of the Hindu votes. In Orissa in particular, the BJP won 10 seats and its ally the BJD nine. The BJP is bound to try to become the dominant party in Orissa at the expense of the BJD and it can be expected to increase attacks on the minorities to achieve this end. The only way the BJP can successfully run the coalition is to stop being a majority party and become a truly federal one. But this is not possible so long as the RSS continues to control it. The choice between being a right of centre party leading a broad coalition, and a cadre-based one with the agenda to "Hinduise" Indian society will constantly be tested in the new circumstances. The other dilemma the BJP faces is that any toning down of its communal rhetoric leads to an erosion in its support base as happened in UP. Though the infighting within its ranks and poor performance of the Kalyan Singh state government led to a considerable loss in votes and seats, one factor not sufficiently noted is the loss of its upper caste support to the Congress as a result of dropping the Ram Mandir agitation. The BJP peaked in UP between 1991 and 1998 because the emotive issue was kept alive. If it is to keep the alliance going it can no longer do so.