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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Big who wrote (10338)	10/19/1999 4:53:00 PM
From: William Hunt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

THREAD ---LU trading at 57 in after hours---also the following :Lucent Technology Inc. Reiterated 'Buy' at Salomon Smith Barney 10/19/99 7:01:00 AM Source: Bloomberg News Quote Snapshot LU 57.00 -0.38 Enter symbol: · Symbol Lookup More from CNET Investor Quotes delayed 20+ minutes Princeton, New Jersey, Oct. 19 (Bloomberg Data) -- Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU US) was reiterated ''buy'' by analyst Alex M. Cena at Salomon Smith Barney. The 12-month target price is $100.00 per share. BEST WISHES BILL

To: Mr. Big who wrote (10338)	10/19/1999 4:55:00 PM
From: William Hunt	Respond to of 21876

THREAD ---Part one --Lucent Technologies Inc. Dow Jones Newswires -- October 19, 1999 SmartMoney: The Stock Market's Greatest Hits: These 10 Superstocks Are The Market's Undisputed Leaders, Representing Nearly A Quarter Of The S&P 500's This story appears in the November issue of SmartMoney magazine. By Ken Brown and Nellie S. Huang They are the giants. The titans. The biggest of the big. They are America's largest, most valuable-and, one could argue, its favorite-stocks. Microsoft, GE, Intel, IBM, Cisco, Wal-Mart, Lucent, Exxon, Merck and Citigroup. The market has rewarded this select group of 10 companies with an incredible runup in the past few years. While sizzling Internet IPOs may have grabbed more headlines, these bluest of the blue chips have gained an average of 54 percent a year over the past three years. Together, they make up nearly a quarter of the value of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, and this year they're responsible for more than half of the index's rise. Says Brian Posner, the former Fidelity star who now manages the Warburg Pincus Growth & Income fund: "You ignore them at your peril." All of which begs the question: What now for these stock market superstars? Can they possibly continue their torrid run? Or are they about to fall off a precipice, like the supposedly can't-miss "Nifty Fifty" stocks did in the 1970s? We decided to find out. After reviewing the historical data, and after conducting extensive interviews with analysts, industry experts and the companies themselves, we've come to some conclusions about what's next for each of the market's 10 biggest stocks. History, we believe, tells us a lot about how the market treats its favorite companies. Take a look at the top 10 lists from past years that appear throughout these pages. You'll see that for every General Electric, which has endured at the top, there's an Eastman Kodak, a former No. 4 that now ranks as the market's 109th- largest stock, a few notches ahead of Amazon.com. The market's leading stocks tend to rise to the top based on what they've done in the past, not what they're about to do. Indeed, the companies on 1969's Top 10 list returned an average of -1.1 percent a year over the next decade. In 1979, in the midst of the Iranian hostage crisis, oil companies were all over the list, while 1989's greatest hits, on the eve of the technology boom, were devoid of tech companies, aside from IBM. (At the beginning of 1996, Microsoft was the only tech company among the 10 most valuable stocks.) Yet some companies do manage to scrap their way to the top and stay there. What's the secret? To remain a superstar, a company needs more than just a hot product or sector. It needs to adapt. IBM isn't just a computer maker anymore. It's a services and software company. At GE, nearly 50 percent of the revenue comes from financial services -- a long way from the home appliances and light bulbs that were GE's beginnings. "Those companies that remain on the list stay there because they understand where the world is going, and they're going with it," says Stuart Freeman, chief equity strategist at A.G. Edwards. No question, all 10 of the market's current favorites are richly priced. But which ones will be able to adapt, and which will fall by the wayside? Read on. BEST WISHES BILL

To: Mr. Big who wrote (10338)	10/19/1999 4:57:00 PM
From: William Hunt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Thread ---Part two ---7. Lucent Technologies Which stock on our list has performed the best over the past three years? Microsoft? Cisco? Try Lucent. It has outgunned every one of the market's favorite stocks in its short lifetime. Can it keep surging? Absolutely. Can it return another 550 percent in the next three years? Probably not, though if it grows at even half that rate, investors will be very, very happy. Lucent's success in the near future depends on whether it can continue growing by 20 percent a year. When you've got $33 billion in annual sales (three times that of Cisco), rapid growth gets harder. But Lucent has shown great skill at taking market share from rivals such as Alcatel and Siemens in its core business of selling equipment to telecom companies. It has also moved aggressively into new markets. With its acquisition of Ascend Communications -- and new products such as Softswitch, a voice and data integrator -- Lucent, already the leader in sales of voice- and optical-communications equipment to phone companies, is gearing up to battle Cisco in the data-communications-equipment market. For the immediate future, though, the two companies won't cross swords that often, especially since growth in the sector is so strong. Lucent shares, while expensive at $66, are down from their July peak of $78, in part because of persistent concerns about its balance sheet. The company appears to have put to rest claims that it was manipulating its pension funds to boost company profits. Yet the latest worry -- rising accounts receivable -- has led to warnings that the company has been stuffing the sales channel to meet earnings expectations. That's the main reason the stock has languished over the past two months. But Lucent's management is too smart to try a trick like that, most analysts believe, and receivables should continue to fall in the next quarter. Sanford Bernstein analyst Paul Sagawa -- who recommended Ascend 18 months ago, before it rose fivefold -- says that if Lucent were really trying to boost its earnings with dubious sales, it would have already been caught. "The bear argument predicted the wheels would be falling off by now," says Sagawa. "But performance is great." Is now the right time to load up on Lucent? Most analysts, citing the stock's P/E of 44 on next year's earnings, think the short-term upside is limited. "If you're looking beyond 12 months, this is as good a time as any to buy the stock," says Kenneth Leon, a Journal All-Star Analyst at ABN Amro. We agree. BEST WISHES BILL