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To: Tony Viola who wrote (90625)10/20/1999 8:13:00 AM
From: GVTucker  Respond to of 186894
 
Tony, RE: Back to the DRAM feast or famine syndrome, far be it from me to figure out why it has to be that way, i.e., feast or famine for DRAM, with all the superpower semiconductor companies that are into it. What is up with that?

Because, for the most part, DRAMs are indeed commodities, and their price behavior shows that. Take a look at the price of corn, pork bellies, or even your own little demon, gasoline. A refinery here and the price of gas spikes, a rainstorm there and the price of corn spikes. Commodities are as close to economic supply and demand theory as you can get, and the equilibrium level is one spot. A little too much and there's a glut, a little spike in demand and there's a shortage.

Regarding DELL management, you surmise correctly, I am not a great fan of them at all. I also think that I have a pretty good handle on them. IMO, the whole DELL story is a story of more luck than skill. On particulary, M. Dell never thought the direct model was superior, he only did it that way because it was the only way he could afford it. He tried to mimic the CPQ model once he got big enough, and almost killed the company in the process.