To: The Verve who wrote (20246 ) 10/23/1999 5:08:00 PM From: E. Graphs Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25814
Ron, I'd like to thank you for Bob Brogan interview. That guy definitely knows what he is talking about. This was the first time I've heard of him, but I don't really know much at all about who's who in TA circles. I'm self-taught and, for the most part, in my own little world. I really liked the format, great charts and clearly defined analysis. You've got yourself a good teacher there. However, keep in mind that even if he reads the charts correctly and gives a clear direction, the market is still a fickle beast which can turn at will when least expected, so, don't bank on every point of his analysis being met. It's a guideline...a map...and there are often unexpected detours that come along the way to thwart the best of them! Let's take his analysis on SOX. He mentions the same H&S that I posted a chart on to you the other day. He thinks it will work itself out to the 438/440 target, same target as mine....same as many others, of this I am sure, but by buying a few of my favorite semis now I am leaving room for a possible surprise to the upside, rather than banking on a complete move to 438. The market is very good at giving us the opposite of what the majority expects, and that is what leaves bears in the dust and bulls at the alter. Bob Brogan might very well represent the majority of those in the know, and sometimes I think that if enough of the professional technical analysts are giving their big clients advice according to a classical read of the charts they may actually help cause that very move to happen, or not. That's why it pays big dividends to know the TA, just so that you can be aware of what many others are thinking. Actually, I found his thoughts on SOX comforting. If I remember this part of the interview correctly, he says the sector has been pulling back only because it got ahead of itself....left unsaid is that it would probably be a very good buying opportunity if the SOX got to his 440 target. If a lot of people think this way do you think SOX will go that low? There's the puzzle! As for the A/D line, a great chart was recently posted on the MDA thread (attention!...trop d'ours!) which shows that it looks like this part of the market has pretty much bottomed out. decisionpoint.com Same for his chart showing number of stocks under 200day moving average.......looks ready to turn. I really enjoyed the interview. Thanks again for bringing it to my attention. E