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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5620)	10/20/1999 10:44:00 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Respond to of 12823

Re PAIR--Maybe I can shed some light (as a long-suffering PAIR holder). The HDSL losses are kind of old news. ADTN got the business on price, but there are some QOS issues. There are some indications that BEL is not happy with them. There isn't much of any relationship with ILEC's. In the second Q CC Pascoe emphasized that marketing would concentrate on CLEC implementations. That direction was mentioned again in the 3Q CC. Management keeps saying that they have contracts that they are not permitted to announce. The announced contracts are slight, as you say. The "several" unannounced contracts might be anywhere from 2 to a dozen--which isn't very helpful to us. Avidia is what management is hanging its hat on. It's a great product, apparently. What is unclear is how well it fits into the various telcos' equipment rooms. The idea is that it can serve several ("all"?) purposes inside one box. In a lot of co's space is at a premium, so the telcos will have to use boxes that combine several functions, if they want to offer the broadest range of services from their co's. Avidia addresses this. I have seen a list of supported formats (eg., POTS, various flavors of DSL, out to T1, etc.), perhaps on the PAIR site. Avidia is shipping. Revenues were recorded for it last quarter. I assume that is why DrSak thinks this is a good time to look at PAIR, as well as BB Robertson Stephens. There was a hint that the BBRS analyst knows something about a major telco's plans, but that is speculation, I think. Assuming that management hasn't been blowing smoke about Avidia, growth in that should overcome the declines in HDSL in the fourth quarter. From there, we might actually see some substantial growth in 2000. By the way, Pascoe, the new President, has been in place less than a year, I think. He was put in place to give PAIR some professional marketing expertise. Charles Strauch is playing a somewhat lesser role. It was under his role that various missteps took place (eg., involvement in an investment scandal, allowing ADTN to win the BEL HDSL account). These are behind PAIR now. Pascoe has also brought in a real salesman, also, whose name I forget right now. For the record--I bought equal amounts of PAIR and QCOM in 1997. I continue to be long in both. They're not equal amounts now! Best, JS