Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KM who wrote (30682)	10/19/1999 11:37:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Never got to answer your post the other day. You were correct in that the games played against longs near the close were as mean but in a bull market, a temporary set back when long was not that big of a deal and a long position doesn't HAVE to be closed unless you are margined to the gills. For shorts, it is a little more painful when a rally breaks out unless you are the deep pocketed persuasion. Regarding your article, I am not sure I would take investment advise from someone that lives in Woodstock <GGGG> On a more serious note, I am not a perma bear and I was not short when they squeezed the shorts near the close. I was just commenting on how nuts the rally was. As of right now, I am totally neutral. The market internals as usual for this year are absolutely horrible but since when does that matter <ng>. Over 200 new lows, a CPI that was far from bullish and aside from MSFT's great report, every other company has clearly stated that business is grinding to a halt due to Y2K prep or fear of Y2K. ( at least that is their cover story) On the other hand, I am seeing a LOT of pent up buying energy that no longer cares about bad news. Someone mentioned KEA tonight. They missed earnings, gave a bleak conference call and rallied over 5%. DELL has a PE of 60(?) announced they would miss and dropped only a couple points. Last year they would have been taken out back and shot like RTN or numerous others that were cut in half earlier ) There is a possible inverted H&S on the hourly DOW chart that points to 10600, some short term bullish forks are fitting in on some daily index charts and some support lines are starting to hold and timely reactions to buy signals have resumed. Basically I could see a rally from here, at least short term and the comments about the weak dollar actually looked intra day like a possible drop to retest support from yesterday. Futures are up big. ( the open is biased upwards with a negative 245 still being a buy program and a negative 645 needed for a sell program) If the trade numbers are not really bad, there are traders that can only buy stocks long and they are itching to do something since they couldn't buy for the last 2 weeks and they are used to gambling, oops I mean trading, every day ( mama needs a new pair of shoes ) The Bonds however look like crud. Everytime I start to see a bullish pattern in the charts, I open the bond futures chart and look at it. I quickly put my horns away and go back to trader mode. Longer term, I have to admit, I no longer see a reason to take the market down long term other than the ridiculous over valuation that the market has achieved ( A BIG reason). All the talk about inflation is valid in regards to oil, gas, other commodities and the labor force. However as I have been listening to the conference calls the last couple of weeks, They are all saying that business is slowing down. The affect of slowing sales may put enough people out of work soon to counter the shortage. As prices are dropped in an attempt to raise sales, the prices will stay low. The only flaw in my thinking I see ( other than I am certifiably nuts ) is the possible threat of stagflation. Higher costs of raw materials but no pricing power to recoup. ( lowered earnings but profits don't matter anymore ) I haven't thought this through all the way yet but I am honing it each hour.........In the mean time, the trade report, AOL earnings and IBM's earnings should dictate direction once the euphoria of MSFT wears off. A MSFT rally right before the anti trust announcement, now there is an interesting aray of possible trades. <ggg> Good Luck, Lee

To: KM who wrote (30682)	10/20/1999 8:18:00 AM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Time for the Bears to Hibernate By James J. Cramer 10/20/99 7:13 AM ET Wait a minute! It is the 20th of October. We got through it again. Last week at this time, we were already panicking about what would happen yesterday. The 12th anniversary of the crash. And what happened? We had a fine day until the rumormongers in the bond market started spreading nasty rumors about an instant tightening. Still, it was an up day, and it was capped by a beautiful quarter by Mister Softee (MSFT:Nasdaq). The market's memory for fear is extremely limited. We were supposed to crash this week, weren't we? Things were supposed to be terrible. But so far, once again, we -- and I mean the collective we -- have bought the dip; we have taken advantage of the decline and put money to work. We did what we always did, and the big bad ursines got it wrong again. Oh, they never admit it. They never come out and email you and say, "You know what? You were right, and I was wrong. The market didn't crack." Instead what they do is hibernate. After a nice run, one they won't catch, they come back after a bad day and predict horrors again. They make you no money. Their routine revolts me. Their total lack of accountability is intolerable. What's really amazing about this rally -- and it is a rally, bears, whether you like it or not -- is that the breadth of it is getting better and better. The financials, drugs, foods, oils and Nets all went up. Now with Mister Softee reporting a great number, tech will join the upswing. That's what you want to see at the bottom. Right now it looks like -- and remember this, too -- you had to buy last Friday. Typical. Remember, what has to go right usually does. Remember, if we can help each other eliminate the mindless emotion of fear, we can make money together. thestreet.com