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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ruffian who wrote (2521)	10/19/1999 11:12:00 PM
From: nbfm	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13582

the pieces of q's earnings puzzle are floating out there. 1. first we have rf micro's results: "Revenues for the quarter ended September 30, 1999 were approximately $68.9 million, an increase of 119% over revenues of $31.4 million for the corresponding quarter of fiscal 1999 and an increase of 11% from revenues of $62.0 million for the quarter ended June 30, 1999. The increase in sequential revenues was primarily attributed to continued strong demand from the handset industry. " i look at the 11% increase in revenues on a quarterly sequential basis. 2. then ti reports that it has raised digital handset growth targets from 60% YOY to 70% YOY, which works out to roughly a compounded rate of 15% on a quarter by quarter basis (i'm not able to judge seasonality -- but i think that the industry is operating at present capacity so full production should wash out seasonal issues for this year at least). 3. last quarter, q reported pro-forma earnings of $.87. 4. q indicated during the last cc that the pro-forma was a good place to start for 4th quarter's results. 5. q indicated that it would "meet or beat" consensus numbers (i think those number are --- $.87). 6. q used a friendly analyst to report that there won't be a tremendous upside on those numbers; that same analyst recently (i.e., after the "no big upside surprise" report) reinterated q a strong buy. 7. q's share of the market in chips has not yet eroded in any major way. (there is no real after market competition yet.) 8. i think that it would be a reasonable assumption that q will grow its earnings sequentially at a rate in line with rf and ti's increased growth projections. therefore, is it reasonable to expect to see 4th quarter earnings between .$95 and $1.00? this would reflect a growth rate of 10 - 15% sequentially (somewhere between 46 - 75% annual growth). would this represent a pleasant surprise to the street?