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To: LLCF who wrote (45362)10/19/1999 10:47:00 PM
From: Keith Feral  Respond to of 152472
 
One reason for extreme volatility in October is that mutual funds are required to balance their yearly capital gains and losses by the end of October so they can make their distributions at the end of the year.



To: LLCF who wrote (45362)10/19/1999 11:17:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
two other October reasons:

first... almost every single year since I began investing, we have had a postLaborDay rally... following the typical August summer vacation, with fast growing techs suffering the most, brokers return and big players return and analyst recommendation re-appear... everybody joins the party in unison in mid-September... like always, they take it too far... 1987 was an absurdity with interest rates rising from 8% to 12% but stocks rallied anyway... so October comes around, and it is musical chairs for the exits

second... October is harvest season... our psyches begin to view agricultural harvest, collecting firewood, change of season with chilly nights, retrieving cold weather clothes with warmer jammies, all these in synch with gathering stock profits from the typical postLabor rally

put the two effects together, and you get the infamous October crush... summer vacation sets up a unison of timing... we tend to rally together after LaborDay, and sell together weeks later in October

the reality of fund management only compounds the effect

call me crazy, but harvest season in unison
/ Jim