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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (53257)10/20/1999 1:02:00 AM
From: CpsOmis  Respond to of 95453
 
<What will be the catalyst for the next move up in the E&P's?

Earnings, overall market, sector rotation or an OSX reversal back to 75-80.>

Given that market moves are based on perceptions of the future, I think earnings will have an offsetting action to Y2K fears through the end of the year. But if earnings for this quarter are decent and balance sheets are strengthened, and a NG shortage/price squeeze starts to happen early winter, I think the "January effect" prior to upcoming earnings will be a sweet moment. I expect extraordinary volatility through the end of December as positioning takes place.

There are so many conflicting voices and facts out there about NG supply tho, I am not sure what to believe.

Help me out anybody with a clue about the nuts and bolts of oil/NG here...isnt' NG the first thing drawn out of a new well? Or are there specialized NG wells vs OIL. What I am getting at, is I was under the impression that there is a surge of NG that is drawn off from a fresh well before the oil is drawn out. With that logic, any surge in oil exploration (expected..Boom 2000) will bring with it a temporary bubble of NG supply.