Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl R. who wrote (49409)	10/20/1999 12:52:00 AM
From: Ed Beers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Assume: - Memory capacity is fixed and fully spoken for. - Windows 2000 requires double the ram currently shipped. Conclusions: - New PC production will drop by 50% upon the release of Windows 2000

To: Carl R. who wrote (49409)	10/20/1999 12:56:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

carl, i'm not convinced no new fabs can be brought online within a year or so. sure, building has slowed, but stopped? somebody made a comment awhile back about no building and then i read about a new fab going online. i think there were three keys to this price spike and one wildcard. 1st key - lots of sdram capacity was taken offline to support the rmbs bomb. well, they didn't know it would bomb - but they should have. that capacity is being re-geared for sdram and lots of middle fingers are pointing toward the bay area ;-) 2nd key - some concern about y2k's effects on asian dram producers has caused most companies to ramp their desired safety stock levels. 3rd key - earthquake in taiwan. the supply constraints and the demand spike are temporary. the wildcard is the fact that mu gave away 8 weeks of inventory at about $4.00 - just before the ramp. mu builds fabs at the absolute top and dumps inventory at the absolute bottom. u gotta luv dat! ;-) anyway, i see mu at about breakeven (actually, burning cash to stay "report" breakeven eps) during q2. we'll see.