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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffry K. Smith who wrote (32372)	10/20/1999 1:42:00 AM
From: pompsander	Respond to of 93625

All is riddles at this point. However, there may be a little light showing through the haze. Let's see... 1. Coppermine/Carmel launch seems on time, on track by all accounts. Intel could not afford a problem with this one after Camino, so you have to think it is gonna go ultra smooth. 2. While Rambus benefits from Carmel, it only does so by a ratio (I believe I read) of about 1/8 as much as it would from Camino...the diff being the volume/price equation for the mainline systems and the workstation/server systems. 3. However, if Carmel launches successfully, then Rambus is finally operating successfully in a mainline personal computing environment. At last. 4. So, while the Camino enigma drags on, both Intel and Rambus need to find a way to reach back (from carmel) to the mainstream market which was to be served by Camino (and may still at some undisclosed date). So, as speculated, Intel develops Carmel lite, backing into a more expensive but satisfactory solution to the gap problem it has created in its product lines. Rambus goes along for the ride. 5. So, if this is likely, or even possible, then isn't the roadmap working out exactly as most anticipated it would? Rambus enters the market on the "high" end, gravitates down to the mainstream level and, with Timna, enters the economy models in a year or so. Now, the leaks from the Dell catalog showed that Rambus/Camino systems were going to be reasonably priced. We may lose that advantage in a Carmel/lite environment, but is this different than what many of us were assuming would be the price points a few months ago? 6. Are we really in a very different place than what was anticipated a few months ago. Not a smooth road, but maybe still a successful one. It all depends on Intel.

To: Jeffry K. Smith who wrote (32372)	10/20/1999 2:03:00 PM
From: Doug M.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Jeff, <so are we to understand that RMBS gave no firm date for anything? (since you used the word "hopefully").> Unfortunately, Rambus doesn't give firm dates for anything. They are at the mercy of Intel to bring products out in a timely manner. Rambus always says something to the effect that "it's up to Intel." I used the word hopefully b/c I've read several times that Carmel will be introduced at the end of October. Here's an example: This article was released about a month ago...at the time Camino was delayed: ebnews.com "A second Rambus-based chipset designed for workstations, known as the "Carmel," or Intel 840, uses only two Rambus modules and is still on schedule for release in about a month, the Intel spokesman said." This link is from Intel: intel.com <Secondly, Stuart Steele said "Just wait until the 25th of October with no word from the analyst" in the following message: Does what you heard on the conference call allow you to make some sense of what he means?> I'm not sure what he means by this. From what I remember about the call, the Rambus execs weren't saying to expect any fireworks on any "magic" day. However, from all the information out there, I believe we can expect good news about RDRAM actually being introduced with the Carmel 840 chipset come Monday. I'm hoping for some good news about Camino too but I'm not holding my breath. If we get news out of Intel that shows they're confident enough release a chipset that uses RDRAM for workstations then pc's can't be too far behind. I think this will be a psychological boost for the stock...this may be what Steele alluding to. It will also put a nail in the coffin for the camp that says "Rambus may never work". Marcy Burstiner from TheStreet.com likes to promulgate this type of BS. That's why I believe any type of RDRAM announcement on Monday is critical in the short run. Good luck, Doug