To: Defrocked who wrote (70283 ) 10/20/1999 12:40:00 PM From: NickSE Respond to of 86076
SOURCES: ECB WAITING FOR CLEAR COUNCIL MAJORITY FOR RATE HIKE economeister.com FRANKFURT (MktNews) - The European Central Bank is waiting for a "clear" majority to emerge among its 17 Governing Council members before it decides to tighten monetary policy, top-level European central bank sources told Market News International. Council members favoring a rate hike may already have commanded a slim majority -- or be close to attaining one -- at the ECB's last meeting on Oct. 7. But a rough balance still existed at that meeting between the arguments for and against an increase in borrowing costs at that juncture, the sources said. There are still "equally good reasons" for the ECB to hike rates now or for it to wait a while longer to do so, one source said. One of the sources indicated that of the 11 national central bank governors on the ECB Council, four from EMU states with relatively strong growth and high rates of consumer price inflation now want a rate hike -- Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain. In addition, a majority of the members of the ECB's Frankfurt-based Executive Board -- at least four of the six -- also support a hike, according to this source. He cited recent, seemingly coordinated, comments from ECB President Wim Duisenberg, Vice President Christian Noyer and Chief Economist Otmar Issing. According to this source, it appears that Duisenberg, who has been prone to careless remarks in the past, intentionally made the explicit reference to the September M3 data at the press conference following the last ECB Council meeting on Oct. 7. The implication is that the ECB president wanted to send a clear hint to the markets that a rate hike may come sooner rather than later. However, the tactic was not viewed favorably by all ECB Council members, the source imparted. Similarly, Duisenberg's revelation at the ensuing press conference that no vote was taken at the Oct. 7 ECB Council meeting was designed to defuse speculation the ECB might be farther away from hiking rates than is the case, one source said. The logic here is that the ECB would otherwise have been caught in the trap of the markets reaching that conclusion on the basis of their belief that the Council members in favor of a rate hike had been outvoted.