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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CIMA who wrote (9409)	10/24/1999 1:20:00 PM
From: Liatris Spicata	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

A couple of quotes I found interesting from a bearish interview with Dennis Gartman in this week's Barrons: <<Q: Yet recently it's been suggested that the pressures to devalue are lifting. A: That is wishful thinking, honestly. Since the Chinese numbers are never wholly trustworthy, I am suspicious when China reports that exports picked back up! The pressures to devalue are increasing. It is abundantly clear that exports are slowing, even though export growth was rising rather substantively in 1997-98. Reserves are actually falling slightly. ... You may not see export growth next year. ... Japan has taken more proper steps in the last year than probably any other G-7 nation. That will be surprising to a number of people. But I think Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's moves on taxes -- allowing writeoffs of mortgage interest against income, cutting corporate and individual income taxes -- are absolutely to be applauded. They clearly have gone out of their way to try to sponsor economic activity through tax cuts. Obuchi has done yeoman's work in piecing together a very tenuous, three-party coalition that seems to have molded itself together into a cohesive whole. Obuchi has proven a far more adept politician than I or anyone else thought he would be. >> Gartman also believes that Japanese demographics- an aging, decreasing population- will cause major social and economic problems. He claims Japanese authorities have little choice but to devalue the yen, and predicts that in the next several years the yen will go trade at about 175, perhaps 200 to the $US.