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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (23315)	10/20/1999 9:12:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Their BTB was .9856. This means that business was OK but not outstanding going forward. But is this a reason to tank a stock from 41 last week to 27 today? Sellers in this sector are probably concerned about a weak September SEMI Book-to-Bill number tomorrow. Late August, early September were reportedly sluggish for semiconductor equipment bookings before accelerating again in mid-September, so tomorrow's number may reflect this. This along with inflation anxiety is probably causing a lot institutions book profits on stocks that have had large moves. I thought you would be pleased with the down move in the sector, because you wrote calls on your positions? Bob

To: Jerome who wrote (23315)	10/20/1999 9:58:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Jerome, I believe a prime driver of TER's growth was testing for RMBS chips. They were one of 2 companies that came to this party early with a tester fast enough to handle RDRAM. Now that no DRAM makers are making RDRAM; and their first and largest customer, Nintendo, has announced that it's going to use DDR SDRAM in its next generation game system, the BtB is reflecting lower sales going forward. The Camino chipset use of RDRAM is still up in the air. Neither INTC nor RMBS has stated what the precise problem is, nor what the precise solution will be, nor when that will happen. It would be unrealistic to expect TER to maintain its price with so much uncertainty re its future earnings; and the life expectancy of the key driver, RDRAM. TER may well turn out to be a bargain. Right now there's more risk than reward. JMHO, Ian.

To: Jerome who wrote (23315)	10/21/1999 3:23:00 AM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Jerome Re << In my opinion the BTB number is taking on a life of its own.>> On Thursday of last week, COHU reported much larger than one BTB, record booking, record backlog, handly beat estimates and still got hammered. Trading at forward PE of around 10. Re <<What would happen to to CYMI stock if they beat estimates and report that revenues will only be up modestly next quarter?>> Only modest growth in revenues will be bad news. But considering that it has already come down alot, it will take some REAL bad news for it to fall much further. I do expect BTB of around 1.25. Just for the record, my guess for backlog (for the competition) is way too high, I just made a mistake. But Backlog should be north of 75 Million. Mani