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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (32903)	10/20/1999 9:36:00 PM
From: Duker	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 70976

BK (on forecast), What is "cautious pessimism"? Is the business about to be flushed down the toilet or is this a real recovery? "Cautious pessimism"? I am bearishly sanguine about the ability for anyone to forecast either a recovery or a correction in this business. These guys and their quantitative models. The only good they do us is that they need to purchase silicon-based machines to churn out their senseless data. We could very easily be on the verge of a downturn. Just as easily, we could be on the verge of a sustainable upturn. No one knows. Unless, of course, you pay Advanced Forecasting a $5,000 subscription (just PIOMA) for their proprietary forecasting service, which is 90% accurate (i.e., they have predicted that the last 4 semiconductor recoveries would end at some point and then resume again at a later date). I wonder if Advanced Forecasting can predict whether I am going to have to relieve my bowels before or after my second cup of coffee tomorrow? --Duker