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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smooth Drive who wrote (30874)10/21/1999 12:15:00 AM
From: Vitas  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 99985
 
Hi Eric, one thing to look at in conjunction with the NEW HIGH NEW LOW BULLISH % CHART getting into the single digit area is
the percentage of stocks over their 200 day moving average.

Once it breaks the 30 percent level:

decisionpoint.com

it has a tendency to find a bottom in the 10 to 15 percent area:

decisionpoint.com

Vitas



To: Smooth Drive who wrote (30874)10/21/1999 6:53:00 AM
From: HairBall  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
Erick Stevens: Thanks for the chart update. Question for you. Expectation for this chart are based on tracking during a "bull" market.

How will this chart track during a "bear" market? Will the tracking invert?

Regards,
LG



To: Smooth Drive who wrote (30874)10/26/1999 4:32:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
NEW HIGH NEW LOW BULLISH % CHART

This chart is constructed by taking a 10 day moving average of the New Highs divided by New Highs plus New Lows (over 52 weeks). Its range is therefore 0 to 100%.

The chart bottomed on the 12% box on 9/29/99, reversed up on 10/08/99 and reversed back down on 10/19/99. After today's close it filled in the 8% box. 

80
78                 X
76         X       X O
74         X O     5 O 
72         X O     X O 
70     X   X O     X O X 
68     X O X O     X O X O 
66     X O X O     X O X O
64     X C 1 O     X O X O 
62     X O X O     X O X O
60     X O X O     X O X O 
58     X O X O     X O X O
56     X O X O     X O X O
54     B O X O     X O 7 O
52     X O X O     X O X O
50     X O X O     X O X O
48     X O X O     X O 6 O
46     X O   O X   X O X O
44     X     2 X O X O X O
42     X     O X O X O   O
40     X     O X O X     O X
38     X     O X O X     O X O
36     X     O X O X     O X O
34     X     O X O X     8 X 9
32     X     O X O 4     O X O
30     X     O X O X     O X O
28     X     O X O X     O X O
26     X     O 3 O       O X O
24 X   X     O X         O X O
22 X O X     O X         O X O
20 X O A     O           O X O X 
18 X O X                 O   O A O
16 X O X                     O X O
14 X O                       O X O
12 X                         O   O
10 X                             O 
8  X                             O
6  9

Got to the 6% box on 9/3/98. The time before that was 12/14/94. When this chart gets this low, and/or oversold, it's hard to supress my grin in anticipation of what will come. When will it come? Sometime in the future<g>. But, historically, the gains that have been made from these low levels are very impressive.

Some of the current action as follows:

	       NYSE	NYSE		10 Day 	5 Day
	       New	New		Moving	Moving 
DATE	       Highs	Lows	Index	Average	Average
10/26/99	39	322	0.108	0.078	0.113
10/25/99	44	288	0.133	0.081	0.104
10/22/99	56	239	0.190	0.094	0.081
10/21/99	25	338	0.069	0.099	0.048
10/20/99	22	320	0.064	0.118	0.046
10/19/99	19	275	0.065	0.136	0.042
10/18/99	8	418	0.019	0.155	0.057
10/15/99	11	500	0.022	0.178	0.107
10/14/99	24	357	0.063	0.191	0.150
10/13/99	15	324	0.044	0.204	0.190
10/12/99	33	204	0.139	0.213	0.229
10/11/99	43	118	0.267	0.209	0.253
10/08/99	42	134	0.239	0.191	0.250

Take care,

Eric


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