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Strategies & Market Trends : Option Spreads, Credit my Debit -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Tara who wrote (1002)	10/21/1999 1:35:00 AM
From: WTMHouston	Respond to of 2317

Your suggested scenario sure has the least risk - greatest reward possibilities. There is something "right" about having at least one weekend a month with very little risk. The one difference here from the Texaco v. Pennzoil situation is that with T v. P, we knew it was coming out, just not the decision: guess that the knowledge that it was coming out may have also been inside info. I'm going to watch it this Thursday, Friday and Monday to see how it acts: a paper trade of sorts. At worst, this will give me an idea how it may act next month at the same time if the decision has not yet come out. This, though, is going to ruin a lot of lawyers' Friday afternoon plans for a while. The lead lawyers are all going to have be "around" at around 4:30 each Friday: so much for any three day weekends for a while. Anyone want to pick up the trash at the federal courthouse on Thursday evenings for a while? <g> Thanks to all for the input..... Troy

To: Jon Tara who wrote (1002)	10/21/1999 2:49:00 AM
From: RoseCampion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2317

Here's the ultimate cheap MSFT gamble: buy at-the-money or slightly OTM puts and calls AT EXPIRATION. Jon, I like that, and it illustrates a point made by McMillan in The Book, that Fridays != expiration Saturdays, and that news can always come out after the bell on expiration Friday that changes the picture entirely. There's one more risk implicit in your scenario that needs pointing out, though. If the judges' "findings of fact" are a mixed bag of wins for DOJ and wins for MSFT, as many of us expect, and you're holding this straddle, then you're going to have to make a quick decision about which way the market will interpret the news come the opening bell on Monday morning. And the market's eventual interpretation may or may not be the same way it's being played up by the media on Friday night, or that you yourself think it is based on the initial news releases. Or what if MSFT or DOJ issues some major press release after Saturday afternoon but before Monday's open that substantially changes everyone's interpretation of the decision and its consequences for the company? (Don't know exactly what that would be, but you can't discount it as a possibility.) Again, I like the play, but you have to take into account _all_ possible risks. -Rose-

To: Jon Tara who wrote (1002)	10/21/1999 12:46:00 PM
From: OX	Respond to of 2317

Jon, I like that idea. Does anyone know of an options broker which will take exercise instructions after, say, 7pm ET on expirations Fri? (Jon, I'm sure Preferred is not going to let us do that; nice execution system, but their service stinks IMHO :-) With my luck, MSFT will end up between strikes at expiry and, my guess is, even a strangle at that point will cost at least 1/4 each.

To: Jon Tara who wrote (1002)	11/5/1999 9:35:00 AM
From: WTMHouston	Respond to of 2317

Update on MSFT decision. Could be tonight. Troy WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A key ruling was expected in Microsoft Corp (Nasdaq:MSFT - news).'s landmark anti-trust trial Friday, sources familiar with the case said. U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson had said he would release a ruling on a Friday at 6:30 PM in the 'findings of fact' on the case, and those familiar with the situation said the court has said it would be ready Friday. The ruling would be the first of at least two that Jackson was due to make in the case, in which the U.S. Justice Department and 19 states have alleged that Microsoft illegally abused monopoly power in the software operating system for personal computers. Jackson's decision was expected to explain what facts he believed were proven during 76 days of trial, which ended in June. Microsoft argued during the trial that its dominance in the operating system market did not amount to monopoly power and that, in any case, its actions have been within the law. Later this year, after further arguments following the findings of fact, Jackson was due to issue another ruling. In that ruling, Jackson was expected to say whether Microsoft violated antitrust law and has liability for doing so.