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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken98 who wrote (30877)	10/21/1999 1:10:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Ken, I realize that. I was mostly being sarcastic with my comments. Although it is true that "Big Iron" sales have not kept pace with the deployment of Wintel client-server networks. But the thing that is a little frustrating with these "Y2K lockdown" effects is that, while yes, it can and very well may cause large hiccups in quarterly operating profits, it's not a reason to revisit 1929 in re: the stock market. Companies which are putting off deploying new hardware sales until the century turns, are still probably going to need that hardware next year. What I mean is, there is no reason why there will be permanently lost revenues. ALSO, computer hardware sales are not the entire U.S. economy. Consider the following hypothetical announcement, and rate it's probability of happening: Seattle, WA (Business Wire) -- Starbucks Corp. (Nasdaq: SBUX) today is announcing a Y2K related sales slowdown in the fourth calendar quarter. Said Joe Blow, CFO of Starbucks, "We think that people have been either drinking coffee before Y2K, or will wait to drink coffee until Y2K has passed. Either way, it's clear that coffee drinking is dropping dramatically, as seen late this last month in our store sales reports. It may take until 2nd calendar quarter 2000 for sales to start picking up." I think you probably get the point. Furthermore, Has anyone considered the upside earnings surprises at all those insurance companies and banks in the fourth quarter, since IT expenditures are going to be down 40%? It's all the overblown emphasis on how terrible all this will be that bugs me.