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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: richard surckla who wrote (32458)	10/21/1999 2:32:00 AM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Anand's comparison of VC-SDRAM (VIA Apollo Pro 133A) and RDRAM (Intel 820): anandtech.com The VIA chipset had PC133 VC-SDRAM, but it was CAS-3, not CAS-2. Anand also tossed in non-VC PC133 with the VIA chipset, along with a 440BX system as well. The 820 system had RDRAM-800. The highlights: - Business Winstone 99 and BAPCo SYSMark 98 tests showed a virtual dead heat, with a spread of only a few percentage points. - VIA's chipsets wins in Netshow Encoder and Naturally Speaking Professional, while the Intel 820 wins in Adobe Photoshop. BX was in last place in all three. - Intel 820 wins in the synthetic Platform Bandwidth Test and the AGP-4x Transfer Test, the former by a wide margin. This isn't surprising, since both benchmarks were created by Intel. - Intel 820 wins in Quake 3 Arena, but only by a few percentage points. - Intel 820 beats everyone else in 3D Studio MAX by a significant margin. - Virtual Channel technology only improved performance by a very miniscule amount in every benchmark. The exception was 3D Studio MAX where it improved performance significantly over non-VC SDRAM. That last point is pretty interesting to me. Other than that, the VIA chipsets supporting PC133 SDRAM perform very well for the money. And as usual, RDRAM's performance benefits aren't very significant for today's applications, save for 3D Studio MAX. My view still stands, that RDRAM will show better performance improvements in the future, especially as Coppermine is released and software starts to create more complex memory traffic patterns. Of course, that's a pretty hopeful and naive statement considering the current situation we're in, but hey, this thread could stand to see a little more optimism these days. Tenchusatsu

To: richard surckla who wrote (32458)	10/21/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: Mohamed Saba	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 93625

The way I see it 1 - Rambus technology works. It works in game products. It works in PC's. There are many PC's, at Intel and some PC makers, currently running well with RDRAM's with the 840 and, mind you, with the 820 as well. 2 - The delay in introducing the 820 is due to a problem with some motherboards. Intel said the fix does not require new silicon. Fixing a problem with motherboards takes less time than fixing silicon. However, I would not rule out that the redesign of either or both of the 820 or the RDRAM chips could make the system more tolerant of motherboard imperfections. 3 - When the 840 is introduced (hopefully on Monday -:)) it will at least silence the claim that Rambus technology does not work. It, by itself, will not make a lot of money for Rambus, however. 4 - Intel said that the 820 will ship this quarter. That is when the money starts flowing in. 5 - The DRAM market is projected to reach about $50 B by 2003 (may be even 2002, I am not certain). By 2003 RDRAM's will have captured well over 50% market share and growing. According to somebody on this board or on yahoo, RMBS gets some 1.5%. (Somebody else suggested 3%). At $50 B, 50%, and 1.5%, RMBS would have revenue from PC's only of $15 per share growing at over 30% a year. Other revenue from games and comm products may (should?) suffice to cover their other expenses. There bottom line would be about $15/share. If they command a PE ratio of 40, RMBS would be $600. 5 - I do not know, at this time, of a better long term investment. 6 - It will be rocky, no doubt about it. The doubters, the shorters, and the manipulators may take it down further from here. It may drop someday from $300 to $200. But it will eventually get there. Good luck investing -:) Mohamed