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To: bill meehan who wrote (70743)	10/21/1999 8:50:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Which begets an interesting question, "If the Fed raises by only 25bps, will they remain behind the inflation curve?" A Fed hike of 25bps only impacts window borrowings; market rates are already higher since the FOMC's last action. The demand for credit could continue unabated as the marginal cost of credit is unchanged. Moreover, anticipated Fed action does not usually alter real activity. Quite an important series of data coming up that should help shed light on this issue. Employment Cost Index and productivity, GDP, NAPM, Payrolls and hourly earnings, PPI and IP all before the FOMC decision Nov.16. If these numbers come in above expectations, 25bps will not be enough IMHO. And of course, there's always the signals that the stock market is providing.<g>