Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (90738)	10/21/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: Jean M. Gauthier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

You are a very intelligent and perceptive fellow, better than 95% of Wall Street idiot. P. Engel is also very good, the most level-headed, funny fella, with his knowledge of Intel strenghts and weaknesses. Here is my take on: RE: IBM Vs SUN Issue, and IBM calling a "Y2K slowdown" Everywhere I work, SUN equipment is rolling out, and IBM Unix stuff (such as RS-6000) is coming OUT... THE UNIX consolidator is SUN , and only SUN. HP is having troubles with SUN as well, SGI etc etc. No Unix vendor I can think of is having a good year, as SUN is cleaning them out. Sort of what Microsoft did to Lotus , Borland, Ashton-tate, WordPerfect, Novell and now Corel. Also, Linus is not scalable like Solaris, so cheapo websites will use Linux with Apache, but for real E-commerce, it's a SUN or nothing... 1- Technologically, they are the best 2- They have "mind-share', the Best Unix mindshare in the industry. 3- They have superb R&D, and great advances coming from crapshoots like the MACJ chip, Java initiatives, set-tops boxes, JavaPhones wireless, and Jini. 4- Massive industry "value-chain alliances" with CheckPoint Technologies (FireWalls), Security Dynamics (Security), and others.. IBM vs SUN is a joke, for IBM that is. IBM's only real strong business is : 1- UDB/DB2 is a superb database system, better than Oracle. 2- Their IBM Global Services Division is pretty good, and are a "best of breed" in that area. The Rest ? As I said, EMC, SUN, Intel, and Dell are taking them apart, bit by bit, chunk by chunk take care

To: Road Walker who wrote (90738)	10/21/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 186894

John, OR-IBMs problems are just the first sign of Y2K problems and the other companies you listed are just now coming into the gun sight... Basically, I'm waiting for fear to accelerate and then for it to turn to greed...after I've bought back in... Ideas that IBM is just using Y2K as an excuse are bogus, IMHO...

To: Road Walker who wrote (90738)	10/21/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi John, Since IBM's product sales cycle could be longer than software-only sales, this unfortunately, could imply any potential Y2k impact would be felt by IBM first. But, I believe MSFT would most likely be in touch with their customers/market place, and since MSFT did not say they predict a Y2k affect, this carries weight, and might counter any possible lead-time IBM has in feeling any impact if their sales cycle is longer in large corporate accounts. Another distinction: Enterprise buyer is not necessarily the same as the departmental buyer. Different segment here. IBM's buyers may have slightly different priorities in their demands, and possibly different buying patterns (sales cycle). Another distinction: there's a difference between when an IT/MIS actually places an order for the equipment and when they actually (decide to) install the equipment. Has anyone seen a survey asking IT/MIS managers, "will you introduce something foreign into your system two to four weeks prior to Y2k?" However, this concern could be minimal as the stock is based upon when IT/MIT buyers make purchases, not when they install equipment. Some IT/MIS managers are starting their purchases and installations well in-advanced of the Y2k (thus, an uptick in Q4). However, there's a balance of IT/MIS managers who will wait until after Y2K (thus, a downtick in Q4), and for some companies, the uptick+downtick could balance out. Intel said during their CC they expect these two forces to exactly balance each other out in Q4, with no resulting impact in the net. Intel has said both stories are alive and well. If IBM's product-lines are not as highly demanded in the market place (and as an Intel investor, this would be my belief), this potential lack-of-strong-pull could mean the Y2k downtick becomes more visible, resulting in a noticeable Y2k impact which they would have to report, even though the underlying reason could be demand-issues-unrelated-to-Y2k, which time would eventually tell, and if so, it would become apparent in 2000. In summary, I believe IBM's problem is a possible combination of: 1) longer sales cycle (which would exasperate a y2k downtick) 2) product-demand problem (unrelated to Y2k) I think the future will be very good for MS & Intel due to products targeting the Enterprise market segment because according to MS's CC there are signs of acceptance in this market segment, where margins are higher, and Intel was mentioned as a platform, so I believe Intel will follow equally as successfully in this market. Unrelated to Y2k, about MS... if Linux is taking bites at the Departmental segment, this could result in the Enterprise being stronger than the Departmental segment -- this question occurred to me immediately (too bad one of the Analysts didn't ask this question to clarify.) However, since MS didn't say this was why the Enterprise segment was stronger, but rather implied it was due to acceptance and adoption of their Enterprise NT solution (as oppose to a weakness with Departmental segment), I'll assume this is the case: that Enterprise solution of MS (with Intel platform) is being accepted in the market. Amy J