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Technology Stocks : Vignette Corporation (VIGN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wizard who wrote (118)	10/22/1999 1:30:00 PM
From: David R. Doerr	Respond to of 628

One of the better posts out of you in some time. You go bro'.

To: Wizard who wrote (118)	10/22/1999 1:46:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 628

You have to investigate why a company like VIGN is able to do this? Then look at Amazon.com's revenue growth. Its absolutely staggering. Amazon.com could do $600-$700mm in revenues in Q4 - the company's first revenues were what, 3-4 years ago. OK but to be fair this comparison (amzn v. vignette) is not quite accurate because the web commerce model is one where there is no scale in the business. You build a website and do a good job with branding as amzn has - and poof - the entire country and in some cases the world is online at once. I'm sure you've read Meeker's and others analysis and understand this but just for the benefit of others here I wanted to mention it. Software is not the same deal... you sell a package to somebody, they install it... then you go to the next customer... each sell takes resources etc. Thats what makes the cmrc vs. arba battle so interesting... cmrc is employing more of a web model and arba is software that gets installed - all things being equal cmrc would grow faster - but of course all things aren't equal, arba has a better product and a head start. But more importantly, do you have any thoughts on what the valuation of companies in vign's space could eventually rise to? Because Sebl is at 8 billion - vign is going to overtake that amt quickly... of course web content is bigger than SFA, but by how much... any ideas?