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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (1019)	10/21/1999 5:22:00 PM
From: doniam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Amusing, I'm thankful that the rebound didn't cause my NOVA position as much hurt as earlier in the day.

To: J.T. who wrote (1019)	10/21/1999 6:52:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

J.T., although i have also begun to ease into bond calls on the expectation that the bond may catch a flight to safety bid eventually, i am not so sure we have really seen the bear market lows in the bond...is it really such a 'roaring buy' as Elaine Garzarelli claims? the evidence with regards to an increase in inflation keeps on mounting, the Philly Fed survey was the latest nail in the new era's coffin. as long as stocks continue to hold up, i don't see how the bond can muster a rally...note that the Rydex bond ratio still points to a surfeit of bullishness in the bond, contradicting the anecdotal evidence of increased bearishness. now to the stock market...i take it you regard the breakdown in IBM as a significant development, and i have to agree....concurrently to the punishment dished out to IBM's stock, we have speculative issues of all stripes in an incredible up-crash. companies with a handful of dollars in revenues and losses that often exceed their minuscule revenues command multi billion dollar market caps. while i do agree that the growth prospects of many internet backbone and B2B firms are breathtaking, the degree of speculation in these issues puts everything i have ever seen to shame...it leaves me speechless. i just can not believe that the market can keep on holding up on the back of the most speculative sectors alone while fundamentals and internals crumble left and right. the two main factors in the market's favor are the increase in bearish sentiment and the position of the cycles, which seem to point up for the balance of this month. however, the market has already reversed direction twice in recent months in the middle of what were supposed to be positive cycles and one has to question the validity of the sentiment data as contrary indicators if we have indeed entered a bear market...just as a certain surfeit of bullish sentiment has it's place in a bull market the reverse should hold true in a bear market. so the question is: are we indeed in a bear market? a great deal of technical evidence, from the chart patterns to the market's internal condition says that we are. even the Dow theory has confirmed that a bear market has begun. and yet, the secular bull trend can still be discerned when looking at certain stocks and sectors. the Nasdaq is in fact only a hair's breadth from an all time high. i just wish we had a true capitulation sell-off to clear the air...this water torture market is a tad unnerving at times.