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To: BILL CHOW who wrote (20344)10/21/1999 11:49:00 PM
From: Sr K  Respond to of 25814
 
Congrats to all who kept the faith and esp those who bought on the dip.

**OT** on CPQ
Bill, IMO:

You may want to combine FA and TA:
Start by checking EDGAR for "Compaq". You get a full page without a Q or a K. All Forms 4, 5 and 3. You have to enter their CIK (0000714154) to get the regular filings. That's just a broad view of what is happening (or not) there.

At 6/30/99:
60 days a/r
only $3B working capital
$4B intangibles and other = all retained earnings
DEC is worth zero (or close to)
Hard bv = $4
Stock will break $18 and then technically toward $10.
Might bottom at $8, but I wouldn't bet long on it.

It's a bad story of a CEO who focused on volume ($50B) and a business that was out-strategized by DELL's direct model, and now is getting killed by the free and zero boxes. I also think that Gateway's purchase of ALR may have been better than expected, and eaten away at CPQ from the higher end. Add an earthquake, a flood and who knows what else (entrepreneurial departures during a hot, extended IPO market), and ... I don't want to say more on this thread.

** Back on **
Except, thanks Patrick for your summary of the cc. I'll listen to it in the next hour.

What a great thread. On others, with a report and cc like today, we could have had 600 messages.



To: BILL CHOW who wrote (20344)10/22/1999 2:55:00 AM
From: E. Graphs  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25814
 
//OT//

Bill,

Funny you should ask me that. I took note of that stock today. It looked bad...headed straight to slaughter. Going strictly on technicals a low of 14 is not out of the question if the stock breaks 19/18 area......keep in mind 19/18 is on trend and if the stock has any fight left it might hold to a trendline until something comes along to break it down further, or pull it up instead. Problem is that this is a neckline and a break would be swift.

I know this sounds very negative but if you take a look at the long term chart and compare it to the charts of MO ANF and possibly G tomorrow, you will get the picture.

CPQ:
siliconinvestor.com

MO:
siliconinvestor.com

ANF:
siliconinvestor.com

Perhaps a bottom fishing wiz will see things I don't and suggest this as a buying opp. I honestly can't see it. Is it a hold? I think that depends entirely on the FA at this point and I don't know anything about the stock other than the chart. I will say that sometimes a stock will recover more quickly from a declining head and shoulders because a lot of downside has been done. The FA would help decide that too.

Hope it works out to be better than I see it.

E