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To: Libbyt who wrote (81547)10/21/1999 8:46:00 PM
From: fedhead  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Hi

The DSL equipment world has 3 components. At one end you have the DSL modems. This is how subscribers dial out to
their central office. There are lots of modem suppliers like
Alcatel, 3 COM, Cisco etc. Chipsets for this modems are provided by Aware, Globespan , Alcatel etc. In the end I believe the modem business is going to be a commodity business just like the 56 K modem. Maybe one supplier can benefit if they become the monopoly like US Robotics did.
At the central office you have these boxes which aggregate
these modems. These aggregators are called DSLAMS. Suppliers
here include CMTN, CSCO, ALcatel , probably Nortel and Lucent. These aggregators terminate a bunch of modems. Not clear who the winner in this space. As the aggregators do not have much value added software on top there is not much
differentiating the aggregators. These aggregators usually
take all these modem calls and put it on a broadband backbone like (ATM ) where they are terminated by the end equipment. This end equipment takes all these ATM circuits and shoves it on to the IP backbone which we all know and love. The end equipment has all the value added software by
which ISPs can provide enhamnced broadband services beyond
basic connectivity. I think the fattest margins are in this end equipment. Leading vendors are RBAK, CSCO and Nortel through their aquisition of Shasta networks. Lucent has some products via Ascend but I think the perception is that they may be behind. If I had to chose a DSL equipment vendor other than CSCO (I am naturally biased here :-) I would go with RBAK and maybe AWRE after their deal with INTC. RBAK has a huge valuation but I believe this market is going to grow exponentially for the next few years.

Anindo



To: Libbyt who wrote (81547)10/21/1999 9:34:00 PM
From: Mark Fowler  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Thanks Libbyt i think you cannot go wrong right now with Bvsn and Vrsn good move... Get Jdsu on the next move back to 50dma or close to it...a core holding here...shr holders have to vote on 2 for 1 but it'll be approved, imo. Fibre companies in the sweet spot of growth wave!

Dsl news: agree it's early yet for Dsl i think Cmtn will go higher. What did you think about the Intc and Aware news?

Cmrc only at apprx. 3 bil. Mkt. cap. this could be part of the oligopoly, a play in the B2B area.