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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (32921)	10/22/1999 3:09:00 AM
From: KLINVESTOR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

September BTB of 1.08 is great as far as I am concerned. It is important to note the revision to prior bookings that has been taking place for the past few months. With this current report the August Bookings were revised up $90 million or so and if next month the September bookings are revised up in that range the new order bookings would be higher than the currently reported peak a few months ago. Given the earthquake and the slight downward trend of new bookings taking place for the past few months this report is good news. With the higher DRAM pricing and other tight semi markets we should see a new round of higher equipment orders soon and where we are at now is a good base to start from. Good luck.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (32921)	10/22/1999 6:31:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

EK: From the report: "Taiwan is currently a market for 17 percent of the world's equipment business. The earthquake there undoubtedly contributed to the pause reflected in September's figures," said Stanley Myers, president of SEMI. "Despite the modest interruption, we are encouraged that the industry anticipates a strong fourth quarter, improvement on last year's results and uninterrupted business for the foreseeable future." If the BTB is a three month moving average and the earthquake occurred on September 21st with nine days left in the month and 17% of equipment goes to Taiwan, how much impact could the earthquake realistically have on the data? Call me skeptical. I don't understand why they put such a great emphasis on the earthquake in this report. Industry has been forecasted to be flat short term since the AMAT cc prior to the earthquake. If Taiwan is going to be an excuse, then maybe they should use it next month. Meanwhile, another earthquake in Taiwan last night. Does not appear to be damage to the semi industry there from what I have read so far.