To: uel_Dave who wrote (45690 ) 10/24/1999 2:02:00 PM From: Eric L Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
David, << why is the GSM Alliance putting out these ads now? >> Part of the answer lies in the latest press release "New Logo Links Digital Wireless Alliance Companies to 'GSM Global Network' " which is at the link you referenced. GSM growth has lagged CDMA growth in NA for 2 primary reasons neither of which have anything to do with technology. The first is coverage (which relates to licenses) and the 2nd is brand awareness. GSM laid the groundwork to overcome the coverage problem by successful bidding in the C Block reauction earlier this year and as a result will have a national footprint by this time next year. In addition, the GSM Alliance carriers have effectively established roaming agreements with each other in the spirit of coopetition (and for the most part because their footprints overlap little) to deal with the coverage issue. They have done this more effectively than CDG members, who with the exception of the old cellular B carriers have not done so, placing CDMA carriers in direct competition with each other. In addition when the first CDMA carriers launched, those that were B carriers operated in 2 frequencies and 2 modes to achieve coverage. GSM operates only in the 1900 MHz PCS spectrum and GSM dual mode / dual band phones were not introduced till 1997 and still serve only limited use. Brand awareness is also significant. With the exception of Pac Bell and Bell South, nobody ever heard of the GSM carriers that built out and launched in 1996 and 1997. Sprint and BAM an AT were household names. For the reasons above, I had almost written off GSM in North America at the end of 1998. This years subscriber growth has amazed me and most observers. The new GSM Alliance "Propaganda" is designed to promote awareness of GSM to overcome the lack of brand awareness in much the same way that Europeans refer to their mobile as their "GSM". CDG would be wise to emulate, IMO, because only on occasion have I heard people (off these threads) refer to "my CDMA phone". Most of us are technology clueless. The "Propaganda" also precedes the giant North American GSM network that is shaping up (which has provided some great investment opportunity he smiles) through M&A to compete with 'T', MCI/Sprint, Voda/AT with their BAM/GTE link, and whatever SBC/BellSouth become on the TDMA side of their networks. I'm an old Sales & Marketing guy, so I have learned to never underestimate the competition. I apply that to investing as well and I do not underestimate the formidable GSM competition to CDMA, or the power of "Propaganda". While I don't fear GSM competition as a threat to my long term QCOM holding, I respect it, and feel compelled to assess it realistically. My friend Caxton has taught me that "GSM is Toast" <g> but ... for fun you might want to run some YTD charts of NA CDMA carriers (PCS, BAM, etc.) and QCOM v. NA GSM carriers (OMPT, AERL, VSTR, MICTF) and run them again for beginning of Q3 forward. QCOM comes in first in the 1st exercise, but a few of the GSM carriers come in real close. As for the second exercise, judge for yourself. Investing in wireless is not all about technology, IMO. I might also add, however, that I do not consider any of these GSM carriers to be substantial long term holds (like QCOM). Interesting also that courtesy of Nortel a Canadian GSM carrier has the first operational 3G network in North America. Innovative those Canadian's, eh? <g> - Eric -