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To: w0z who wrote (2035)10/22/1999 7:17:00 AM
From: Ian@SI  Respond to of 3661
 
Emails have been sent.

Some quick impressions from the call.

Not so good:

While volume was up, ASPs went down a little. Big deal, margins were higher than planned (if only by 1%). But I'm sure John G will be quick to differ. ;-)

EPI and RTP are still slow to develop. Brad didn't seem worried about this. He now has dedicated sales teams working exclusively on these products. Up to now, 1 salesperson had all products and naturally focused on the easiest stuff grabbing the low hanging fruit from a commission perspective.

Probably a great strategy to get these products moving. Hopefully, it will be implemented flexibly with a view to having an integrated sales force once again. I doubt that most customers would choose to deal with multiple sales forces per vendor once equipment is in production. However, many would probably be overjoyed to have their own dedicated representative while they're evaluating a product or developing a new process with it. I don't really know how the chipmakers actually feel about this. My guess comes more from intuition and my own dealings with salespeople.

The rest exceeded my expectations.

I'd expected a breakeven quarter until I noticed the Consensus at $0.01. So getting 2¢ was a bonus. Should look good in IBD tomorrow. A 100% positive surprise. ;-)

Cash should be superb next quarter. In addition to revenue growth in the 10-15% area, outstanding Accounts Receivable from the terms negotiated (probabably with Samsung) will be collected and DSOs brought back down to financial model target in the order of 60 days.

Run rate should go to about $140-$150M next quarter. But Brad is expecting 10-15% sequential growth as far as the eye can see (which still isn't very far). So we may see FY00 approaching the $200M mark.
IMO, this is aggressive, but just might be doable.

If # of shares outstanding increases by about 15% to 20M fully diluted, then a PSR of 1 gives us $10/share.

But MTSN has almost never traded at a PSR of 1 or less.


Year HighPSR LowPSR

94 6.9 4.9
95 7.9 1.9
96 3.3 1.4
97 3.1 1.2
98 2.6 0.6
99 4.0 1.4



Current PSR is just under 3.

So throwing out the high and the low, we could expect a range near yearend next year of about $14 at the low end to about $70 at the high end; and about $30 if the PSR stays near 3.

I could easily accept a triple during the next year. <vbg>

More from the call later.

If I still have an SI id that is.

Ian.




To: w0z who wrote (2035)10/22/1999 7:24:00 AM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3661
 
OT to Bill, Nick,

Thanks for the kind words.

I still am here, obviously.

So far, Bill Fleckenstein, hasn't said how I've harassed him.

Only thing I can think of is that I requested that he obey the law of the land. I'd think a Director of Gnet should understand what that is. Or perhaps being a director makes him above the law. (Actually only SEC regulations.)

Clearly, if SI members are removed because one or more of their posts offends someone, there would be very few SI members left; and nothing worth reading. IMO.

Hopefully, the management at SI will take a more detached and objective view than Mr Fleckenstein. However, members of the board of Directors don't have to be right. Nor do they have to believe in freedom of speech or a spirited dialog.

Time will tell.

Hope to continue posting later,
Ian.