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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (7151)	10/23/1999 2:52:00 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

MG, Sitting on the Dock in the Bay, Watching the ships roll in, and watching them roll away again. Really, Really came close to committing the Phleet today, but still watching. Thursday the major Indexes were BAMBI 5's (bearish trend). Friday turned them to 6's. It is my experience that this is usually the decision point. We either back up (back to a 5) or move in the normal direction to a bullish signal. The most explosive upward moves come from a 6 reading. DJIA was really interesting today, and brings home the point I want to make. We came right up to the daily DTL and 50 day EMA and retreated. It was Intensity! I profess no knowledge of what's going to happen on Monday, but it will be an important day. We either break above and hold the DTL or look out below. I posted to GZ about a week or so ago that I thought 10/26 would be the danger day. I continue to feel that way. If this upward Big Mo and cannot be maintained on Monday, it will IMHO send a serious signal. Let's add all this to the Big Money Game of Mutual fund performance. Let's assume that the name of this game is to trash your competitor's performance and enhance yours. I understand that most mutual funds end their fiscal year 10/31. So, I perceive that the name of the game this week will be to maximize relative strengths and weaknesses, but end on a positive note overall. Now, throw into the mix that some key Drug, Retail, and Financial stocks are at key resistance points, and we have the makings for a very interesting week. I'll try to listen to the shoe and decide next what to do! I'm consistently reminded that at some point, resistance becomes support, and support becomes resistance. Maybe now, Maybe not! The short term charts generally vote -- Maybe Not. I'll answer you specific question as to selections, after I do my homework this weekend. Just A View from the Swamp TB

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (7151)	10/23/1999 4:17:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Hi MG re Stories .. thought you'd like this one #reply-11684253

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (7151)	10/26/1999 2:56:00 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

MG, Invitation Not seeing any other acceptances of your invitation to fill in the blanks, I'll try my hand in a couple of the sectors. First, I believe investment math is very simple as price is related to earnings and investor perception of the the future quality of earnings and the general Market environment. There are four possibilities: 1) Earnings Expand & PE multiple Expands, 2) Earnings Expand & PE multiple Contracts, 3) Earnings Contract & PE multiple Expands, and 4) Earnings Contract & PE multiple Contracts. Course (1) is a winner, Course (4) is a loser, Course (2) and (3) provide unknown results. Second, I just can not see anything in the current Market environment that would remotely encourage anyone to Buy and Hold for the balance of the year. Third, I'm a Big Boyz contrarian at heart; focus on the Big Boyz and sit back and wait for the Market to kill them. Finally, I like stocks where the PE multiple is selling near or below its projected future growth rate in EPS, near or below its 6 year historical average PE ratio, the PE ratio below its ROE, and generating positive cash flow. The FA winners are: ALL, FTU, GM, MWD, ONE, and S. I'll be the first to say that this ignores current TA (for example, I would wait and hope for another shot at MWD in the 80's). Clearly, no tech companies make the list, and here you have to deal with relative over-valuation. That said, my tech pick would be HWP. I'll provide some specifics of my FA view later. Just a View from the Swamp TB