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To: grayhairs who wrote (6007)10/22/1999 4:02:00 PM
From: Taff  Respond to of 15703
 
Natural gas close Natural gas rose almost 3 percent to a

Filed: 10/21/99

By Mark Pittman
c.1999 Bloomberg News

New York, Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) ? Natural gas rose almost 3 percent to a
two-month high after a report of a smaller-than-expected inventory gain
signaled that cooler weather is boosting demand, even before the heating
season.

U.S. supplies rose by 42 billion cubic feet, or 1.4 percent last week, the
American Gas Association said after trading yesterday. The increase was
less than the 48 billion cubic feet expected by analysts and left supplies about
1 percent lower than a year ago, before the start of the peak demand period.

"The industry is bulled up on this market because they're convinced there's
not going to be enough gas," said Bill O'Grady, vice president, director of
fundamental futures research, at A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis. "The
AGA figure is pretty neutral, which tells me that this market wants to go
higher, and there's no point in standing in its way."

Natural gas for November delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana rose 8.6
cents, or 2.9 percent, to $3.064 per million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. That matched the closing price on Aug. 23,
which was the highest since November 1997.

Natural gas inventories, while lower than a year ago, are about 1 percent
above the five-year average peak before winter, according to AGA figures.
Supplies normally reach their highest level in late October or early
November.

Heating needs on the U.S. East Coast have been slightly higher than normal
because of cooler weather, according to Michael Palmerino, a forecaster at
Weather Services Corp. in Lexington, Massachusetts.

In Washington and Baltimore, temperatures have averaged 2 degrees below
normal over the past seven days, Palmerino said. In New York City,
temperatures were about 1 degree below normal.

Winter Needs

Distributors build up inventories of natural gas at this time of year to meet
cold-weather demand. During a cold day in winter, the U.S. can burn as
much as 73 billion cubic feet of natural gas. That's as much as distributors
often put away during an entire week in the spring and fall, when
consumption drops to about 30 billion cubic feet a day.

The nation's average daily production last year was about 51 billion cubic
feet, and about 8 billion cubic feet per day is imported from Canada and
Mexico, according to the Department of Energy.

O'Grady said the January contract could rise as high as $4 per million Btu by
mid-November.

"If you listen to the trade, they're saying we're running out of natural gas,"
O'Grady said. "The more subtle argument is that we're running out of gas at
$2 (per million Btu). We'll have a lot of gas if it goes for higher prices."