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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (69571)	10/22/1999 4:56:00 PM
From: Jimbo Cobb	Respond to of 97611

Dow up nearly 500 points this week (at least from Monday's lows), and still the PIG can do nothing but trend downward.... WHAT A LOSER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Jimbo.

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (69571)	10/22/1999 5:06:00 PM
From: Jimbo Cobb	Respond to of 97611

El...was this you ??? ragingbull.com jajajajajajajaja Jimbo.

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (69571)	10/22/1999 7:46:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

El: This week has been a puzzle. Past falls in the share price have been attributable to news. The only sense I can make of this weeks fall is as follows: 1. No leaks means nobody knows what is going on at CPQ. 2. Rational skepticism and caution brought the share price to $20, which was probably too cautious. 3. The DELL warning and general market fall that day momentarily intensified doubt but was shrugged off the next day. 4. The IBM warning reinforced the DELL warning and skepticism turned to fear. 5. The IBM warning was particularly troublesome because it not only feeds doubts about CPQ's 3rd quarter but suggests that in a YK2 disrupted 4th and 1st quarter, CPQ will not be able to achieve a turnaround. If this were to be true then an investment will be dead money or will have limited upside until the end of the 2nd qtr. So money in the stock which was speculating a quick pop in the 4th quarter took off. 6. Given all of the above CPQ became a prime candidate for tax selling by institutions before the 31st October deadline. (It would seem that they did not want to wait for earnings to reduce their losses). 7. Despite the losses, the massive cumulative volume in the last three days means that tens of millions of shares were bought beween 18.5 and 20.5 in anticipation of a reasonably quick return. Conclusion - it is difficult to pick a bottom: but there is massive buying power in the wings waiting for a buy signal. If and when that signal comes the first 20-30% pop could be swift. There is a lot of new money in CPQ. The 4th quarter is traditionally strong for techs and for CPQ, and despite the possibility of wobbles in the market between now and mid-November (and the DELL earnings in November may cause more disruption) many analysts expect a market recovery from mid-November. Most analysts expect a strong 2000 for techs with the passing of YK2 distraction, the introduction of Windows 2000 and the rapid development of e-commerce.