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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (71295)	10/22/1999 5:30:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 86076

MM, the truth is, we don't know for sure what's doable in a true bear market. Prechter has a theory that the whole supercycle mania may be wiped out eventually and bring the Dow back down to a previous 4th wave low that was made in the '74 bear market. it does sound a bit extreme, but so did Dow 11,000 a few years ago. let's not forget that the greater the excesses of a bull market, the bigger the hangover in the bear that follows. and this market easily has been one of the most excessive bulls ever. just think of it this way: the NAZ p/e is 158 now. it was at 25 a few years ago. if it goes to a bear market extreme of 15, the NAZ will actually be BELOW 300, as profits will have shrunk as well in the accompanying recession. we've all been conditioned by this bull market to expect a continuation of the good times and the excessive valuations. both are by no means assured.