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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (31167)	10/23/1999 11:13:00 AM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald, Didn't you have class one sell signals yesterday morning? Maybe it was someone else. What is a "class 1" or "class 2" sell or buy signal? Is it generated by some particular system? In all of my reading, I haven't come across the "class" buys or sells. I was wondering if it is P&F generated or what. I wonder how much of the late day sell off was caused by these two factors: 1) the CSCO rumor which apparently was false because toward the end (after the damage was done) of the session CSCO stated that they stood by their previous guidance and the market immediately turned and the Nasdaq gained about 10 points in the last 5 minutes. 2) The extreme nervousness of this market and traders wanting to go into the weekend flat. After all, this is October and the next session is a Monday (I've never seen such an intelligent and yet superstitious group in all of my life <g>). I personally would be surprised if this rally didn't continue through next week possibly taking a day or two off along the way. Maybe longer. It will be interesting to watch the Globex session of the S&P futures starting Sunday night. I think that will tell the story. Matt

To: donald sew who wrote (31167)	10/23/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: Mike Learner	Respond to of 99985

Donald, I love your buy and sell signals and now with this sector analysis addition, I can strongly say, "You want to be in Wall Street, Stay with the MDA Thread". And again, I appreciate many other individuals who put their times and efforts to make intellectual trading more pleasurable. LG: Please, let's welcome more those posts that identify strong and weak sectors along with overall market direction on this thread. P.S., Heinz, I resolved my misunderstanding with the option quote screen - thanks. Check this out - Auto Pilot Site: lookaheadcharts.com

To: donald sew who wrote (31167)	10/23/1999 11:57:00 AM
From: ynot	Respond to of 99985

re sector rotation what about market rotation, hong kong, tokyo, etc....? regards, ynot :)

To: donald sew who wrote (31167)	10/23/1999 1:02:00 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Respond to of 99985

The internets had a very bad weak two weeks back (all down 10-20 points after YHOO reported). This week it seemed they tried to rally making daily higher highs and higher lows. However it seems they were weak all day yesterday, even at the highs of the general markets (EBAY, AMZN, YHOO, AOL) all ended weakly. Seems this week may have been a failed rally period for the nets and money may be rotating out of the nets into drugs and financials. If there is any dissapointments with CSCO, the rotation will continue. Steve D.

To: donald sew who wrote (31167)	10/23/1999 5:27:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I will have to study the charts harder but you pose a great thought for discussion. My system is showing no daily buy signals on the sectors bt I do have short term over bought signals on the BTK, DRG, HCX, CEX, NYSE, OEX, and SPX. The BKX got a lift from teh banking reform bill so it may be a bit dangerous to go against it immediatly. I am getting false over sold signals on some beaten down sectors but they are reaching extremelty low levels and may be due for either recoverys or dead cat bounces soon. These are the TRX ( rising oil prices make it risky), PNX, RUT, and Utilities. These all have weekly over sold signals but like I said, they are so beaten down and have been falling so quickly I don't put a lot of faith in them yet, might be like catching falling knives. I haven't had much time to look through yet and feel Friday's closing rumor put a lot of noise in the charts since many stocks may have sold off as traders saw the NASDAQ collapsing and rather than wait to find out why, may have just started selling not knowing if nuclear war just broke out etc. OT - I just finished changing my site around again to try to get the charts to show better. There were alot of individual pages so I may have missed some. If any of you find a page with errors please let me know either here by P-mail or else you can e-mail me off the link from my site. Also my server is having problems as I was locked out for a while and I am still getting intermittant problems getting to certain areas and have to try a couple times. Thanks. Good Luck, Lee home.att.net

To: donald sew who wrote (31167)	10/23/1999 9:52:00 PM
From: Daniel Joo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Don, added to my tech shorts as well. IMO, we're at the beginning stages of a bear market for the following reasons: 1) The lower lows and lower highs as noted by yourself. I've been tracking the VIX as well and it appears as if it's making higher highs and lower lows and the movements up and down are accelerating. This movement seems to confirm your suspicion of the first cycle of a lower high and lower low on the NAZ/NDX. 2) Rising rates. I believe that the fed will raise another 1/4 point in November. Wage pressures increase which I've noticed just personally - restaurant closing in Martha's Vineyard due to wage shortages in addition to signing bonuses of $2,500 being offered to social workers here in Chicago, increasing salary pressures and shortage of additional technology workers for hire for my company. Employment numbers will be skewed and most likely be misinterpreted because at essentially full employment we will not see job increases in the numbers of 100,000 or more. Instead, they will most likely look like the last employment report. Commodity prices continue to rise as well (see oil, gold, etc.) 3) Decrease in liquidity. Borrowings to buy securities are at a record and continue to rise (currently at $155 billion). Cash held by mutual fund managers at 2% (they will need to increase that percentage to account for Y2K related redemptions). And cash available for investment at non-life insurance companies is at its lowest since 1984 - 4.51%. Individual savings continuing its decline into negative territory. Capital moving into international markets from the U.S. - it looks like Japanese and European markets have become increasingly attractive for investors. 4) Looming possible bad news. Y2K fears, possible China devaluation, impending rate hike by the fed, inflationary economic numbers - CPI, PPI, wages, etc. IMO, the possibility of these events will prevent a 'Santa' rally this year. IMO, we've started a bear market that should run into early next year. I chose high-tech stocks because the Y2K lockdown for the 4th quarter is real - I see it with my clients having spent all their moneys for the year already due to Y2K spending. Obviously, this will have a real impact on earnings for the 4th quarter of this year. We are not anticipating companies to start spending until late in the first quarter, thereby impacting earnings for the first quarter of next year as well. I've read that 1/3 of the decline in a bear market occurs in 2/3 of the duration of a bear market while 2/3 of the decline occurs in the last 1/3 of the time. Looks like interesting times. Dan

To: donald sew who wrote (31167)	10/25/1999 9:19:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Don, i agree...if one can figure out the rotation game it could be very profitable. btw, i guess that unless the overall market has a serious breakdown we may see money rotating into the sectors that have been comparatively weak up until now, basically the small/mid cap/value sectors beginning sometime in November/December. the reason for this is that the weakest stocks were under additional selling pressure lately due to tax-loss selling. i suspect that many will be bought back with the beginning of the new fiscal year. remember that last year the Russel began to perform quite well around the same time for the same reason. regards, hb