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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (31171)	10/23/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Thanks again Les...Well, that sealed it... With that report now out, I can see no reason for the professionals NOT to drop the bottom out. I wonder when the official NASDAQ and NYSE web sites will actually start displaying the little VISA and MC merchant flags on their homepages<g> They might as well... Unbelievable... Best Regards, John Madarasz

To: Les H who wrote (31171)	10/23/1999 12:04:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

"Shepler Capital Management: Weekly Outlook for 10/25 - 10/29/99 BULLS SAVE THE DAY In last week's commentary we stated: "Our charts show important Fibonacci support at 1230 SPX. This support is very critical to any bullish hopes for the remainder of this year. Next week we show an important turning point in the 10/19 +/- 3 trading day timeframe. It is now a sure bet that this turning point will be a low of some sort... bulls are in do or die territory. If the damage next week can be contained and the market can hold above 1230 SPX, then we may get finally get a strong multi-week rally into year-end." The low for the week came in at 1233.66 SPX on 10/18/99, a mere 3.66 SPX points above our critical bullish support level, and a mere 1 day from our 10/19 cycle low ideal target date. However, because of extremely suspect internals (i.e. new lows expanding Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday), we felt that another breakdown below Monday's low was in store for the end of the week. The bulls proved us wrong on this count as they were able to shrug off the bad news from IBM and pressure from the T-Bond on Thursday with a dramatic late day rally. And then bulls followed through on Friday with a bear crushing rally. Thursday was a very positive session in that the market was able to hold up in the face of bad news, which suggests that the 10/18 low may be the platform from which a multi-week rally could be launched. Of course the bulls are not out of the water yet. We peg critical resistance at 1320 SPX. If bears cannot hold their ground at that level then we are in all likelihood headed for new highs. From a technical perspective the bears have an extreme overbought TRIN-5 reading below 4.00 that suggests a top within 1-2 days. However, bulls have expanding daily volume on their side which supports the notion that an impulsive uptrend is now underway, and an uptrending market can continue to advance in the face of an overbought TRIN-5. So, next week will tell the tale of who are in control of this market, bulls or bears. If volume begins to shrink and the market turns sharply lower in the early going next week, then bulls have blown their chance. On the other hand if the overbought TRIN-5 fails to stop this rally, and the 1320 SPX level is exceeded on strong volume and breadth. Then the bears will be back in hibernation likely for the remainder of this year. Our next cycle turning point date is 11/3 +/- 3 trading days and is expected to be a high." urbansurvival.com