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To: Lee who wrote (145635)	10/23/1999 2:43:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Lee, Niles is simply an opportunist with an agenda and is trying to create money flow into the selected stocks. Earlier this year his boss was bragging about how much transaction volume they could generate with their analysts.<g> We all know that GTW is entering its strongest quarter of the year. We also know that its growth rates are substantially less than DELL in both earnings and revenues and we know why. GTW operating margins are intrinsically higher than DELL's due to their brick and mortar stores. So Niles will emphasize GTW positive gross margins and overlook their operating expense disadvantages while emphasizing DELL gross margin problem due to the memory price increases and neglecting their operating cost advantages. Nile's firm is into underwriting internet IPO's so it is in their interest to move money out of large cap stocks like IBM, INTC, and DELL into these smaller more highly leveraged issues. Pay a visit to their website and you will see for yourself. Nile's radio wallstreet talks are in line with his firms policies and interests. They would like to see money flow into selected stocks on a quarterly basis. So you can count on him to seize any possible negative in order to downgrade any of the large cap stocks in order to create moneyflow. DELL has stated that it is managing to the top line revenues and to the bottom line profits. I suspect that DELL's revenues will be greater than projected due to the large number of corporate accounts won and also due to the rapid growth of their consumer business. If the growth in revenues is great enough and the margin squeeze is not too great then DELL may still make its numbers. Niles is saying that DELL will not even make its new numbers. Implying that DELL's costs will be higher than 70-75 million that Meredith guided analysts to in his last conference call. Niles is also trying to imply that DELL will get hit by Y2K issues. This rings hollow because DELL is not yet into the big iron that IBM now calls servers. However, CPQ does have the Tandem servers. Moreover, DELL is not into providing Y2K software services for big iron software. Thus DELL has relatively little exposure to the problems that IBM is experiencing and which will follow them into the next few quarters.Where was Niles when IBM was running up in price? Where will Niles be after GTW runs up in price? DELL will begin to dominate the PC arena in the year 2000. It stock price has been stalled but its trajectory is clear. DELL's stock price can not be held down much longer IMO. Jim Kelley

To: Lee who wrote (145635)	10/23/1999 3:19:00 PM
From: rudedog	Respond to of 176387

Lee - Yea, as I said on one of the Yahoo threads, he is an equal opportunity pessimist - no one escaped. Even his comments about GTW was "damning with faint praise" - since GTW has no enterprise business, at least they have no Y2K headaches. I think he got many of the trends right but his interpretation of the impact is way out of proportion. But then, when did a reasonable opinion make news?