To: gpphantom who wrote (53446 ) 10/23/1999 2:00:00 PM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Phil--re TA--there are many--go into any bookstore's investment section---but I long ago branched away from standard TA (trendlines are made to be broken is one of my mottos) and instead decided that I needed to grasp HOW markets work wave wise. Without such a grounding, standard TA is also lacking--So, after reading up on it and seeing how it worked in practice over time, I came to the conclusion that Elliott Wave was the best of the alternatives out there--far from foolproof by any means, but better than anything else (somewhat like democracy has many pitfalls but it is the best system out there). I strongly believe that if one grasps the basics of elliott, and then refines his/her experience in learning how to read charts using EW, then one is far better off than simply trusting standard TA (trendlines,moving averages etc) or- even more misleading-FA. Elliott deals with the rhythm of markets and how greed/fear interrelate from a social perspective as related to investing. Go to elliottwave.com and search for background basics/tutorials--Prechter wrote a book many years ago which most librariesm have copies of--and go from there. many times I find myself disagreeing with Prechter's count (eg I disagree right now) but everyone should have a SYSTEM with which to proceed. And depending on standard FA is frankly one of the most misleading and erroneous systems of all, imo. --my 2c--I better quit since I may have to eat my words here shortly if crude takes out the recent 25ish peak (vbg)----one should of course undersatnd where I am coming from here---I am NOT saying that crude MUST peak out below 25 and then break 20--just that in my humble opinion the ODDS favour such a resolution as opposed to the opposite. I would put such odds as 60% in favour of sub 20 and 40% in favour of breaking through the 25ish peak in the current run---look at it this way-even if I thought the odds were say 60/40 the other way (ie in favour of taking out 25ish), there would be too much RISK of being wrong for me to continue holding oily stocks from a trading standpoint, so I would simply stand aside for the time being regardless if I was 60/40 or 40/60. Investing is all a matter of learning to work the odds in your favour and nothing to do with wanting near certainty.
