Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (45932)	10/24/1999 8:14:00 PM
From: jewishcarpenter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Vendit, some scattered thoughts on QCOM this week first, I believe QCOM will take its cue mostly from Nasdaq Composite.. the Naz experienced a false breakout two weeks ago as it cut above 2900.. its recent support had been at 2700.. so what does it do? .. it knifes down below 2700 as much as it breached above 2900 in perfect symmetric fashion.. now at 2802 with a Friday high of 2805, it seems to me to be approaching either a serious launch breakout over 2900 or a weak puppydog rollover two weeks ago a historic event happened.. when NazComp made new highs, the Cumulative Advance-Decline Line recorded a 52-week low.. that is the first time it has happened in something like 25 years !! .. that is a monstrous non-confirmation, indicating that tech stocks are absolutely carrying this sick market this is a sick market temporarily.. these recent two weeks did not register any cleansing capitulation in my opinion.. the Dow on Friday just bounced off its downchannel upper boundary at 10,500 another 20-30 points on the S&P500 and it also will be AT its downchannel upper boundary QCOM made a significant run to my TA target of 225 set in mid-September.. it retested it with a simple shorterm Cup&Handle swing down to 190.. it showed a clear daily stochastic crossover after Wednesday's data.. it shot up nicely using that effect to retest 225.. it displayed zero willingness for followthru on Friday, but that is typically not the day for ushering in fresh $billions in commitment I personify quality stocks and the market itself as it and they exhibit clear behavior.. our QCOM has met a goal and earnings now are at our doorstep out of synch with other reporting tech firms.. ever see what happens to a basketball team that catches up to its opponent after being behind by 18 points? .. tendency to relax.. with stocks it is a tendency to sell and be cautious with a 225 mark that twice now he seen selling I smell a possible brief run that will in its late stages be running against a headwind of market exhaustion from a reflex rally.. just one week ago we fretted about a collapse of the Dow down to mid-9000 levels and the S&P below 1200 I expect a tepid rally to 225 and possibly just a bit higher if the overall market is in the mood.. later this week we have GDP numbers out on Thursday which include an inflation "deflator" index.. many states are offering anecdotal evidence of huge employment tax withholdings, which means the economy is strong as an ox.. the Fed is gonn have ample evidence to raise rates, or else scare the wits out of stockholders.. by Thursday I say our QCOM rally is done but wholly successful in a rally from our September 160 lows it is time to hunker down with the FOMC meeting beginning on Nov14th and plenty of anticipatory worry prior to it.. down the road a little is perhaps some climax of Y2K worries of system failures.. just when should we expect the climax to occur? .. not in mid-December IMO with the market's forward looking mechanisms we rally for a few days, maybe hard, dunno.. if we make new highs, I doubt we get anywhere near 250, doubt near 240 either, possibly 230 but barely.. however high we break out, we come down as hard in November.. I dont want to be part of any reversal, which seems likely as Voltaire says "time" is important.. we are fast running out of time in this cycle.. some money to be made possibly this week, but my guess is that the risk outweighs the reward at this time.. I am hunkering down with my newfound profits and lying in wait like a sleek cat looking for a bargain to pounce upon just talked to Jim Willie by phone.. he said "the market is sick as a dog and ready for a rest on its back after this relief rally, which has just about spent its momentum" sincerely, Carpenter