To: BigBull who wrote (53462 ) 10/24/1999 11:13:00 AM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (1) | Respond to
BB---I think you may have misinterpreted where I'm coming from here--I did not mean to imply that it was pre-ordained that OSX must take out 65 and that it is God's will (vbg) I am only saying that in my humble view, the 'odds' favour it.... If I'm 'right', it will simply mean that the odds came down on that side and if I'm 'wrong', it will mean to me at least that the shorter odds won out. It's like one picks a card out of a hat filled with 6 red cards and 4 black cards (many others here seem to think there are 2 red and 8 black due to the news). If the card drawn is red, and the stocks go back down, does it mean that I was right?-not at all, since the odds were stacked in favour of red. Same thing if black is drawn and the stocks go to new highs. In that case, there could still have been only 4 blacks in the hat, a minority, and one was drawn.---So, all I'm really trying to do here is to alert people to what I feel the odds actually are in that hat-based on my interpretation of the wave count- before one draws. No one is "right" and no one is "wrong" here, since as you are well aware investing involves risk and volatile stocks often involve considerable risk. Otherwise they wouldn't be volatile.-----btw, fwiw I tend towards taking moving averages with somewhat of a grain of salt as many trendlines and ma's are made to be eventually broken, so to speak, when the time is right and the wave count is in sync with breaking them. Often one will find in fact that they act as somewhat as a trap to force the weak hands out as they buy(or sell) just when a m/a is penetrated on the upside(downside)--the MM's know where the m/a's are too)-- and then the stocks reverse when the hook is in----more on the 'news' and FA---After business school too many years ago, I started out as an analyst armed with all the conventional wisdom and book learning. At the time I believed strongly that the news background and FA concepts like p/e's,pcf's, pog's etc etc mattered and that stocks would behave rationally and TA was voodoo. After all, if GM had a forward p/e of say 5 geez it must be a 'buy' or at the very least a 'hold'- since look at all the cars people are buying and times are good. But of course I didn't even stop to think that the sellers knew the same things so what edge did I have. Since the market is a discounting mechanism rather than being focused on the present tense, it took me awhile and some painful lessons to grasp that my greatest risk is actually when that apple looks shinny red and everyone is raving about it. Same thing with oil--when oil was 11ish 'everyone' dismissed opec resolve and thoughtful publications like the Economist suggested maybe 5ish might follow. The news backdrop and fundamentals were very poor... So, now that oil reached 25ish and OPEC continues to insist on continued restraint at least through March and maybe till June, the news backdrop and fundamentals are very bullish....My sense is that there are in fact a lot of nervous traders out there now who will sell again at the drop of a hat and that all they need is an 'excuse' so to speak. The recent sharp one way selloff from 25ish was the first volley. I am inclined to think that we will need to see at least TWO sharp spikes down before we can see a potential bottom. You may well be right, a V spike will be sufficient. For the moment at least, I am inclined to doubt that...IF crudes dips below 20 short term, I will in fact turn strongly bullish as I think that that would be sufficient to establish a meaningful bottom--as I think that ultimately crude is going to take out 25ish on the upside.I just don't think it will do it on this rally off the V spike low and I think we will 'need' to print sub 20 very short term in order to build a proper launching pad......Maybe we will see crude surging higher into the 30's induced by y2k breakdowns of supply for eg. and THAT surge will represent the top from which to hunker down once again.
