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Technology Stocks : Vodafone-Airtouch (NYSE: VOD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Wiggins who wrote (2034)	10/24/1999 3:34:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 3175

Mobile groups talk telephone numbers Sunday Times of London 10/24 A FAINT heart never won a fair mobile-phone company, and these days it might pay to call in the heart surgeon for reinforcement before venturing into the bidding arena. Mannesmann's œ19.8 billion bid for Orange (less if you take into account the German company's sagging share price) makes every other mobile bid look cheap by comparison, a considerable feat. According to Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch, Mannesmann's advisers, all this talk of overpaying misunderstands the nature of the market an the explosive growth still to come in telephony. Well, they would say that, wouldn't they. The people who really need to be convinced are Mannesmann's shareholders, and so far the investors are still trying to cope with the shock. So is Vodafone AirTouch, which has close associations with Mannesmann. Its European strategy starts to look threadbare with the German company moving into the Orange camp. When Vodafone bought AirTouch earlier this year emphasis was placed on how the combined entity intended cracking the European market. With D2 in Germany and Omnitel in Italy now both part of a group that includes Orange, Vodafone's minority shareholdings in these companies become an anomaly. It is no wonder then that Vodafone has refused to discourage talk that it might bid for Mannesmann. But does Chris Gent, Vodafone's chief executive, really want to pay out to buy Mannesmann/Orange in the full knowledge that he will immediately have to sell off Orange, quite possibly at a sizeable loss? He may not particularly like the idea, but in the high-pressure world of global telecoms he may feel he has little choice. Bernie Ebbers' WorldCom keeps on snapping up its rivals and is expected to cast its eye on the European market next. It could be a case of Vodafone turning predator to avoid being preyed upon. Meanwhile, the fund manager I spoke to a week ago who suggested any new entrant to the market would surely find it cheaper to apply for a new mobile licence and spend billions giving away phones rather than buying one of the existing operators is still stunned at Mannesmann's generosity. He claims to be completely baffled by the whole business, but those investing in his pension fund should have a happy Christmas counting their profits.

To: David Wiggins who wrote (2034)	10/24/1999 3:38:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 3175

Vodafone seeks bid link with France Telecom Kirstie Hamilton, City Editor Sunday Times of London 10/24 AN ENTENTE cordiale is being attempted by Vodafone AirTouch in an attempt to break up the near-œ20 billion takeover of Orange by Mannesmann. Vodafone is believed to have approached France Telecom to ask whether it would commit to buying Orange should Vodafone launch an offer for Mannesmann. The terms of the Mannesmann-Orange deal mean that Vodafone would have to bid for the newly combined group, valued at more than œ70 billion including a bid premium. But British competition authorities would demand that Vodafone sell Orange, and that means Vodafone has to pre-sell the business before launching a bid. Analysts believe Gent is examining the option of bidding for Mannesmann closely to avoid Vodafone itself becoming the subject of a takeover bid. MCI WorldCom, the fast-growing American telecoms operator, is known to be keen to break into the mobile business in Europe and once its takeover of Sprint, an American rival, is complete it is expected to turn its sights on Europe. If Vodafone cannot enlist the support of France Telecom, it is likely to wait until next year before trying to pounce on Mannesmann. Until June, no Mannesmann shareholder can wield more than 5% of the voting rights, no matter how large the actual shareholding, a restriction that could deter a hostile raider. Mannesmann and its advisers are working hard to knock down expectations of a bid from Vodafone, pointing to the impediments facing the British company. They say Vodafone could face a huge loss from an enforced sale of Orange if a bid succeeded. But advisers to Vodafone suggest the acquisition of Orange is not enough to block any deal. It does not expect the full purchase price of Orange to be reflected in Mannesmann's market value in the months after the takeover. Vodafone is likely to bid only if Mannesmann shares, which have fallen since the Orange takeover was announced, continue to underperform. Klaus Esser, chairman of Mannesmann, said a bidder would have to pay double his company's present market value to persuade shareholders to sell. "A bid is unrealistic because we have a share-price performance well in excess of 100% over the past year," he said. "You'll find our shareholders get accustomed to sizeable value increases that come from the Mannesmann management running this company, not anyone else. At what price would you give up an investment that yields you somewhere between 50% and 100% return?"

To: David Wiggins who wrote (2034)	10/24/1999 3:51:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3175

Dave IMHO now is not the time for this move - may not happen at all. Too much risk. I also think Mannesman overpaid for Orange and will suffer as a result. If we are lucky, this will open a door in the future, if not,it's probably better to move on at this point. Dave sooner or later within the next few months something is going to happen. The article I posted before this post from the Sunday Times of London seems to summarize the choices: buy Mannesmann pass Orange off to France Telecom, wait until next year when the 5% restriction expires, wait until the price of Mannesman falls and I will add one more if the Vod-Ati bid should fail attempt to bid for Telecom Itaila Mobile. Why is Mannesmann such a hot property? It would give Vod-Ati controlling and majority positions in two of the most rapid and someday perhaps most profitable mobile phone countries in the world Germany and Italy-look at the subscription rates they are extremely high; the potential in these countries is huge. Vod-Ati knows this and it is why they do not want Mannesmann to get away. I trust that if the risk of purchasing Mannesmann was high Vod-Ati would pass. Vodafone management is excellent and Ati management is excellent and if this management team decides to go ahead and bid for Mannesmann I for one trust them. This cellular management team is second to none. Both of these companies have not made any missteps since both companies became public. They have my trust and the trust of other investors as confirmed in the stock price. If a Mannesmann purchase fails and if they do not bigger by perhaps purchasing Telecom Itailia I for one would not mind a buyout from let's say an MCI Worldcom. At the right price any stock in for sale in my portfolio. No matter what transpires Vod-Ati is a great franchise making us all wealthy.