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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5659)	11/24/1999 9:43:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 12823

Re: Tellabs (sym:TLAB) AN2100 Cancellation CC Thread, Speaking of free voice, it sure doesn't appear it's going to be free at Sprint! Believe it or not, Sprint cancelled the AN2100 ATM Gateway with Tellabs because they are seeing such strong growth in narrowband voice that they need to beef up that network and leave upgrading to an ATM backbone for later. So instead of migrating to next generation voice/ATM backbone, they are just going to keep it simple and beef up their TDM backbone. Guess who benefits? Nortel Networks with their DMS Succession(I think?) product. But in reading between the lines, apparently Sprint likes NT migration path better than TLAB. TLAB is going to add features to the AN2100 project and call it the 2100GX. But, IMHO it's too early to talk about at this time. BTW, TLAB also said no problem with AN2100 lost sales because the cockaroach(Titan 5500) will make up for the difference. So there is no change in guidance. MikeM(From Florida) PS KenP this is probably a big win for NT over TLAB. But it's just IMHO.

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5659)	2/24/2000 5:44:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Re: Tellabs (sym:TLAB) 99Q4 CC Notes Thread- As usual, in all the conference calls I listen too, Tellabs is always the best. I'm always amazed at how open and straight forward Birck and company are. What is even more amazing is how knowledgeable every one of the top leaders (including the CFO) are about where Tellabs is positioned, and where it's going. It is pretty unusual to see such a knowledgeable team that never fumble the ball on any questions asked. If I had to sum it up, the cockaroach is still king- TITAN 5500. It's still selling strong in spite of everyone and their brother predicting it's demise for years. As a matter of fact, it had faster growth in 1999 than in 1998. Also in Q4, there was a definite shift towards new installs vs line cards. And true to Tellabs, they were honest about their new products coming online in 2000. They know they failed in 1999. And they know it's going to be expensive to develop them for 2000. But they also know exactly where they will fit into carrier's networks. They have a lot of new products in the pipeline. They feel certain these will finally contribute in 2000. But pretty much back end loaded. Here is my summary from five pages of scribbled notes. I probably made some errors but it was the best I could do. You can compare the numbers to Q3 via the linked post above. -MikeM(From Florida) PS I post TLAB CC notes here because it's nice to have telecommunications infrastructure posts, from all kinds of companies, on one thread. Especially considering their exposure in access technologies. Plus, the last mile rarely discusses daily stock prices. That's the nicest part of all. *************************************** Financial Related Comments - Q4 Earnings of $168 million or $.41/share. Up 36% yr/yr. - Q4 Sales of $715 million. Up 37% yr/yr. - 1999 Revenues of $2.3 billion. - 1999 Profit of $535 million. - Titan cross connect was $426 million. - Managed Digital Networks was $133 million. - Echo Canceller was $55 million. Down $2 million yr/yr. - Cablespan was $46 million. - Customer Service was $39 million. - US sales are 70% of total. - Titan was 50% of total. - SBC-Ameritech was only 10% customer in Q4. - Ended year with $966 million in cash. - Ended year with record back orders of $256 million. - Expect yr/yr revenue growth, on the low end, to be 30%. - Expect $1.69/sh profit estimate for 2000 to be challenging but doable. - Q1 2000 estimate net profit at $.30/sh. - Q1 2000 estimate rev at $620 million. - Headcount was up 2,000 in 1999. 40% in one year! New Products General Comments - None of these new products added income in 1999 - AN2100GX - Titan 6100 - Titan 6500 - Everest - Should contribute revenue in 2000. Back end loaded contribution. - Estimate around $150 - $200 million contribution - Expanding Everest and Salix trials. - Will have DWM product testing in June. - Tests are so complicated, doing some sub-testing w/customers in-house. - No doubt. Tellabs will be in switching business in 2000. Very excited. - Getting into new business is expensive but right thing to do for growth. AN2100GX/Salix EXT5000 Comments - AN2100GX is a media gateway switch for carrier's w/ATM backbone. - Specifically to process voice traffic. Has built-in SS7 capabilities. - Salix product is similar but for IP architecture. - Both integrate very well with Everest. 6100 and 6500 Comments - Large number of customers want to trial 6100 and 6500. - Sycamore is not competitor to 6500. - Sycamore killer under development. - 6100 is metro product. - 6100 has full networking capabilities. Mesh or ring based. - Bell Atlantic is very possible customer for 6100. - Cienna is primary competitor to 6100. Echo Canceller Comments - Ditech is competitor. - Tellabs product was too large and too costly. Will fix both by mid-year. - Will add features too. Voice and echo compression. - Two drivers. Wireless and Voice IP. - Integrating echo cancellor into bigger boxes. Will get hard to break out in future. Titan 5500 - Q4 New cabinets were 45% / Line cards 55% - 1999 Year new cabinets 35% / Line cards 65% - Have installed base of 2,700 systems. - Installed 620 systems in Q4. - Growth of 5500 was 15% higher in 1999 over 1998! - Customers want more ports! Moving from 2000 DS3 to 3000 DS3 per box. - Added four new customers in Q4. 3 CLECs, and 1 small LEC. - RBOC/LEC was 45% of Q4 sales. - CAP/Cable was 25% of Q4 sales. - Wireless/IXC was 4% of Q4 sales. Cablespan** - Have significant expectations for Cablespan. Expect to increase 100% in 2000. - In Extensive trials with AT&T. Two cities in Pacific Northwest. - Margin improving but won't say what it is. - Says circuit-switched voice just as cheap as IP voice. So it's a carrier decision.