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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (31300)	10/25/1999 8:35:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Price and volume pattern fits for DJIA/SP with NYSE volume ... traders.com the volume dropped off in the middle and has picked up again...

To: Vitas who wrote (31300)	10/25/1999 9:10:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Vitas: The question is: what makes you think this will be a prolonged bear market as opposed to a healthy correction/bear market. First of all, I will not call it a bear market until it moves below the lower trend line of my multi-decade rising trading channel and continues down. But I did say others may call it a bear market. I really have no way of knowing "for sure" weather it will be a prolonged occurrence or not. I do suspect the excesses of a 25 year bull market will not be rung out over night. The BTD mentality created by a prolonged bull market will drag it out, if anything does. Of course, it could be a giant waterfall event. You and I both know until something follows our expectations it is just a prognostication, not a fact. My question to you regarding the chart of issues below their 200-day SMA, was an attempt to make a point. Those areas/ranges we have come to depend on (on many indicators) to give us reversal signals, may well fail us if and when the Market begins a decline, something more than just a correction in a bull market. I stated months ago, that I thought the break above the upper trend line of my OMC Index multi-decade rising trading channel represented the beginning of a blow-off top. On Sept 15, 1999 I posted on my Road Kill page a detailed analysis and warning. I have not posted an update on that page since, for reason. I have posted follow-ups to that original analysis on MDA several times all linked to charts to provide details of my analysis. I try to always provide details and charts of my prognostications so other can make up their own mind or not. You and I already know the Market's internals are not pretty. So, I will not rehash that which I, you and many others on this thread have presented, many times on MDA. I am primarily a technical analyst and have presented my expectation and the why several times. I really do not know how to do it better, sorry. The only fact I know for sure is that I will be right or wrong about my expectations. However, no one should be married to a position. So, if I am wrong, I will reverse my position, as should all that trade and or invest. It is about making money, not egos. Hope this helps... Regards, LG Disclaimer: The above is my opinion only and I reserve the right to be wrong. An overall market expectation is just that and should not be used in exclusion of the evaluation of individual equities or other investment instruments. Do not base any investment decision solely on anyone person's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your investment decisions.