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Politics : Hillary Rodham Clinton, Senator from New York? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (1572)	10/25/1999 2:30:00 PM
From: Zoltan!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3389

Why Hillary Can't Win So the election is still more than a year away and the candidates haven't even declared yet. It's still not too early to say that Hillary Rodham Clinton cannot win a seat in the Senate from New York. Just look at the latest numbers from pollster John Zogby. Most news reports will focus on Mayor Rudy Giuliani's growing lead over the first lady in the overall race -- he's now ahead 51 percent to 40 percent. But the real measure of Mrs. Clinton's weakness can only be seen by looking at the poll's underlying data. "In order for a Democrat to win statewide," Zogby says, "they need to come out of New York City with 70 percent of the vote, they need to win in the suburbs, and they need to win in upstate cities." Judged by those standards, Mrs. Clinton looks doomed. In New York City, the first lady holds a 61 percent to 35 percent lead. That's good, but it's not the 70 percent she needs. And there are real doubts about whether she will ever get to the magic number. "Even with Rudy being at a low point in his popularity," Zogby says, "it's hard to believe a city that has elected him twice will not give him 30 percent of the vote." The situation in the suburbs is far worse for the first lady. Giuliani leads 59 percent to 30 percent, a margin that would be almost impossible for Mrs. Clinton to erase. "While people in the city know the day-in and day-out problems associated with Rudy, the alleged arrogance, the heavy-handed behavior, the inability to admit a mistake, folks in the suburbs aren't privy to that," Zogby explains. But they do appreciate what Giuliani has accomplished. People who don't regularly go into the city see that when they do visit, New York is safer, cleaner, and friendlier. And they associate that -- rightly -- with Giuliani. As for the upstate cities, Zogby has not released specific figures. But the poll shows Giuliani's lead in upstate as a whole has risen to 58 percent to 32 percent, which suggests that the first lady is not making much progress. Finally, there's one more factor working against Mrs. Clinton. The survey shows the first lady's unfavorable rating at 48 percent versus a favorable rating of 46 percent. It's the first time her unfavorables have outweighed her favorables. "Those are worse than Alfonsian numbers," Zogby says, referring to Alfonse D'Amato, the New York senator who went down to defeat in 1998. Put it all together, and the conclusion is clear: Hillary can't win. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Byron York is a writer with TAS. spectator.org