To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (29453 ) 10/26/1999 5:18:00 AM From: IQBAL LATIF Respond to of 50167
Week ahead: Earnings season tapers off By Marius Meland and Nicole Koffey For momentum investors, the end of October is a favorite time of the year. Oblivious to the onset of fall, the stock market typically enters a period of rejuvenation and refreshed optimism around this time of the year. Puzzling though it may seem, the market is undeniably seasonal. For some reason, early-summer rallies are typically followed by late-summer slumps. Around mid- October the market tends to pick up steam again, culminating with the celebrated "January effect" that often begins as early as in December. This year, however, may be different, as the dark clouds cast over the horizon stubbornly refuse to dispel because of worries about Y2K. Add to that the market's worries about interest rates, the earthquake in Taiwan and currency fluctuations, and it's no wonder few strategists dare hope for a typical recovery this fall. Earnings watch A dozen or so first-tier technology companies are finishing off the busiest part of the earnings season this week. Already AT&T (nyse: T) and several other Dow components have reported this morning, and the rest of the week brings results from: Compaq (nyse: CPQ), Scientific Atlanta (nyse: SFA), eBay (nasdaq: EBAY), Lucent (nyse: LU), Amazon.com (nasdaq: AMZN), Network Solutions (nasdaq: NSOL). With the third-quarter earnings season winding down, Wall Street is now eyeing the fourth quarter, seen as a wildcard. So far, analysts aren't quite sure what to make of the next quarter. The earthquake in Taiwan, which could affect the whole computer industry, took place too late in the third quarter to have any real impact on earnings. The dollar's wild swings also haven't been accounted for yet. Then, of course, there's Y2K, the biggest unknown factor in analysts' earnings projections. What's more, earnings pre-announcements have been a mixed bag. On the negative side, IBM (nyse: IBM) warned Y2K could slow growth in the fourth quarter. On the positive side, Microsoft's (nasdaq: MSFT) chief financial officer hinted that earnings estimates for the fourth calendar quarter were too low. Overall, analysts are forecasting earnings growth of 19.5% in the fourth quarter, a robust figure, though slightly down from an estimated 21% in the third quarter. But with so much uncertainty on the horizon, the millennium's last earnings season is still anyone's guess. Economy watch For Fed watchers, the real action starts on Thursday this week. That's when the Department of Commerce is slated to release the advance estimate for the gross domestic product in the third quarter. Around the same time, the employment cost index for the third quarter is also released. There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding the GDP for the third quarter because other economic reports for the period have been inconclusive. Still, most economists have upgraded their forecasts because of strong employment data. For example, Lehman Bros. economist Stephen Slifer raised his forecast to 5.0% from 4.3% on Friday. If the GDP figure comes in strong, the Fed will doubtless have an incentive to raise interest rates again next month. Fed chief Alan Greenspan probably won't be able to stomach growth much above the 3.5% trend line, most economists think. The cost employment index (CEE), often cited as one of Greenspan's most closely watched economic reports, could also shake up the market if the index increase exceeds the market's expectation of 0.9%.